Kasich's Super PAC planning $2.5m anti-Trump campaign

[Likely Voter]

Since no one else seems to be doing it (in terms of spending $), it appears Kasich's Super PAC wants to lead the charge to take down Trump.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/gop-group-plans-most-aggressive-anti-trump-campaign-yet-216085

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Will Bush's Super PAC (which has a lot more money) follows suit?  Also what about other big 'establishment' groups like Rove's Crossroads or the Chamber of Commerce? So far the only outside group to take on Trump has been The Club For Growth which spent $1m last month in IA.

If I were cynical, I might think that Kasich's Super PAC is partly doing this in hopes of attracting more megadonors. It will be interesting to see if the ads they make include a pro-Kasich or if they are purely anti-Trump. Being that they are coming from a Super PAC there will be no clear connection to Kasich.

[Likely Voter]

Trump already destroyed him on twitter, and in every debate so far. Kasich doesn't have a chance.

Plus, it seemed like Club for Growth tried to go after Trump and Bush tried go after Trump and both attacks were total flops.

Firstly, these attacks would come from the Super PAC not Kasich. I suspect he wouldn't even be in the ads (as that will help them get funding beyond the usual Kasich donors).  As for the Club For Growth, they only spent $1m and Trump actually dropped in polling in IA while they were running ads (that was the period Carson pulled ahead in IA).  As for Bush, neither his campaign, nor his Super PAC has run any anti-Trump ads.

Bottom line, Trump has yet to face large-scale negative TV campaign like the ones that took down Gingrich in 2012. I think Kasich's campaign is being clever here and trying to step into the void.

[Likely Voter]

Why attack Trump? Kasich's hardly the second choice of Trump supporters.

It is a good question, but I think the answer is all about New Hampshire. All the guys in the establishment bracket are focusing on NH assuming the winner of NH will end up being the establishment choice and the nominee (ala McCain and Romney). Problem is that Trump is holding his lead. So Kasich's Super PAC probably feels if that Trump goes down it frees up votes that will more likely flow to establishment types and not religious types like Cruz or Carson.

The NYT has a whole analysis of the establishment problem with Trump in NH.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/11/19/upshot/the-gop-establishment-has-a-big-new-hampshire-problem.html

[Likely Voter]

Trump already destroyed him on twitter, and in every debate so far. Kasich doesn't have a chance.

Plus, it seemed like Club for Growth tried to go after Trump and Bush tried go after Trump and both attacks were total flops.

Firstly, these attacks would come from the Super PAC not Kasich. I suspect he wouldn't even be in the ads (as that will help them get funding beyond the usual Kasich donors).  As for the Club For Growth, they only spent $1m and Trump actually dropped in polling in IA while they were running ads (that was the period Carson pulled ahead in IA).  As for Bush, neither his campaign, nor his Super PAC has run any anti-Trump ads.

Bottom line, Trump has yet to face large-scale negative TV campaign like the ones that took down Gingrich in 2012. I think Kasich's campaign is being clever here and trying to step into the void.

Totally irrelevant. Carson's surge in the area was the reason for Trump's drop, not any weak ads from Club for Growth.

It is quite possible that the CFG ads had no impact, but that gets to my point. Trump has yet to face a big campaign like when the establishment went after Gingrich in late 2011/early 2012.   It seems to me that Kasich's Super PAC is is trying to get out front and test the theory that Trump can be taken down with negative TV. If they show results, you can probably expect others to follow. 

Maybe Trump is immune, maybe not. And even if Trump goes down, it is up to Kasich's actual campaign (not his Super PAC) to find a way to take advantage of any dip in Trump support. Also, this campaign will also test the resolve of Trump himself. Will he finally actually spend his own money on TV? One thing is for sure, Trump has taken notice.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/trump-responds-kasich-super-pac-attack-216091

So at the very least, Kasich's Super PAC has already put their preferred candidate back into the conversation.

[Likely Voter]

Here is the ad Kasich is planning to air... a compilation of things Trump has already said.

That is actually a web ad, we have yet to see what they plan to put on TV. One would hope it would be something with higher production values.

[Likely Voter]

After releasing a few web ads, here is an actual anti-Trump TV spot from the Super PAC, comparing Trump to a Hippo (really)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2-Qh6mD95o