Nov. 10 Fox Business GOP debate criteria released: 2.5% poll average required

[Likely Voter]

I wonder if there will even be 4 new polls out before the deadline. Only nine pollsters meet the criteria and six of them have put out polls in the last two weeks.

There is a good chance today's CBS/NYT poll will be in the final four, which would be good news for Kasich, Paul and Huckabee who got 4%, but bad news for Christie who got 1%. And pretty good news for Graham who got 2%, putting him in the running for making the FOXB debate.

I wonder if Christie (or anyone else who could get relegated) would actually show up. For those with high burn rates and not a lot of cash, that could be the last straw that kills their campaigns.

[Likely Voter]

I think it is possible there will be two new polls and that TIPP will not be included, leaving the current average just using CBS and NBC. Those two average out thusly....

Main
Carson   27.5
Trump   22.5
Rubio   9.5
Bush   7.5
Cruz   7.0
Fiorina   5.0
Kasich   3.5
Huckabee   3.5
Paul   3.0

Kiddie
Christie   2.0
Graham   1.0
Santorum   0.5

Out
Jindal   0.0
Pataki   0.0
Gilmore   0.0

Right now we just don't know how many polls will come out, if TIPP is included and (if only 1 new poll comes out and TIPP isn't included) how they will treat the 3 previous polls (since they are all of equal age and so it is impossible to pick the 'latest' of those 3).

But in 48 hours I guess we will know the answer to these things

[Likely Voter]

The polling cutoff is Wednesday, but they haven't told us what time on Wednesday, have they?

I assume end of business (5PM Eastern), so I guess that would be more like 44 hours and 7 minutes from this exact moment.

[Likely Voter]

Don't count Christie out yet, if no new polls come out, he is in (assuming the TIPP poll isn't used and the new NBC poll kicks out the last NBC poll). If one new poll comes out, then he just needs to get 3% (which is what he got in the new NBC poll).  Right now I would say Christie's odds of making it are around 60/40 in favor of making it in. BTW, same goes for Kasich.

 

[Likely Voter]

There's a new Quinnipiac poll coming out tomorrow morning.

I had a feeling there would be another. Heard anything about Fox? Seems likely they would have a poll out for their debate (I know it's Fox Biz but same diff).

[Likely Voter]

Going back to my post last night, if there are two new polls then Kasich and Huckabee are probably safe (they need to avg 1.5). Paul needs to average 2% and Christie needs to average 3%.

Also Jindal, Pataki and Gilmore need to get 1% in one of the polls to get into the kiddie table debate, which in theory could end up with just two people (Graham and Santorum).

(again, all this is assuming IBD/TIPP is not considered a 'major poll' by Fox)

[Likely Voter]

There is quite a lot of drama for those on the bubble of getting into the Fox Biz debate, especially with Christie. Will he make it in? Would he go to the kiddie table? Will Fox do some poll selection jiu jitsu to help or hurt him (or other candidates). Yet I havent seen any news coverage of this. People are paying more attention to the debate negotiations chaos, which really would only effect the CNN debate in December and beyond.

[Likely Voter]

If Christie does get relegated I think he will show up. Last night on Fox he said he said he wasn't going to sign the 'letter' with the list of demands on debates because it was "stupid"...he also said "put me behind a podium and ask me some questions".  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gj07w9J6Ow

It would be hard for him to complain about the rules relegating him now.

BTW, I rescind my earlier prediction that Trump wont show up. The 'candidates are acting like babies over the debates' meme is growing and his image can't handle looking afraid. He has to refuse to go from a position of strength, not weakness. (but I still think he will find a way to get out of one or more debates this season)

[Likely Voter]

Fox better come out with a poll today, or we enter the chaos zone in picking the 4th poll.

We should know by 6pm eastern (in 3 hours). If they are releasing one it would be during Brett Baier's show. That is when they released their last poll before the first Fox debate.

[Likely Voter]

Brett Baier ‏confirmed on Twitter "New @foxnewspoll polls out tonight"  Not sure why he said 'polls' plural. Maybe he meant for both Dems and GOP. I don't recall Fox doing any state polls this year.

[Likely Voter]

Assuming average includes latest polls from Fox, Quinnipiac, NBC/WSJ, and CBS/NYT, you get the following

MAIN DEBATE
Carson   25.25
Trump   23.75
Rubio   11.00
Cruz   9.50
Bush   5.75
Fiorina   4.00
Kasich   3.50
Huckabee   3.00
Paul   3.00

KIDDIE DEBATE
Christie   2.25
Graham   0.50
Santorum   0.50

NO DEBATE
Jindal   0.00
Pataki   0.00
Gilmore   0.00


If they chose to use the IBD/TIPP poll instead of the CBS/NYT poll, you get this....

MAIN DEBATE
Trump   25.25
Carson   24.50
Rubio   11.75
Cruz   10.00
Bush   5.50
Fiorina   3.00
Kasich   2.75
Paul   2.50

KIDDIE DEBATE
Huckabee   2.25
Christie   2.25
Jindal   0.50
Santorum   0.50

NO DEBATE
Graham   0.00
Pataki   0.00
Gilmore   0.00

[Likely Voter]

According to this story, the debate lineup will be announced on Thursday night at 7pm on "Lou Dobbs Tonight":

http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/04/media/gop-fox-business-debate-polls/index.html

FWIW, the guy who wrote that article, just tweeted this...

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So he believes Fox will not use the IBD poll. Not sure if that is based on educated guess or inside info from Fox.  Of course with Fox, who knows what they will do. Remember last time they unexpectedly kicked out a NBC/WSJ poll saying they didn't like the way the presidential question was worded.

[Likely Voter]

Here is another wrinkle. If you look at the wording of the latest NBC/WSJ poll, it is the same as the one that Fox rejected back in August. The issue is that the NBC pollster reads out 10 names and 'other', and they only read out the names of Jindal, Santorum, Pataki, Gilmore and Graham if you say 'other'.  So it is possible (maybe even likely) that Fox will again reject the NBC/WSJ poll for not reading out all the names.

So then the issue becomes, what poll replaces it? ABC or Monmouth or both (because they are both the same age). Or there is also the possibility they chose the IBD/TIPP poll. For Christie, it doesn't matter. He is under 2.5% in every scenario. Kasich, Paul, and Huckabee all make it into the main debate regardless.  However, it changes up who else is in the undercard. If they chose Monmouth, then Jindal gets in, if they choose ABC the Pataki gets in, and obviously if they use both polls then both of them get in. And if they chose the IBD/TIPP poll, then Jindal is in and Pataki is out. In all scenarios Santorum and Graham are in the undercard.

[Likely Voter]

So then the issue becomes, what poll replaces it? ABC or Monmouth or both (because they are both the same age). Or there is also the possibility they chose the IBD/TIPP poll. For Christie, it doesn't matter. He is under 2.5% in every scenario. Kasich, Paul, and Huckabee all make it into the main debate regardless.

If they count IBD/TIPP and NBC/WSJ or IBD/TIPP and ABC/WaPo then Huckabee doesn’t make it.

If you read the preceding paragraph you would see I was outlining a scenario where they reject the NBC/WSJ poll due to question wording (as they did in August).   

[Likely Voter]

I was looking at the polls and there actually is a scenario where Christie gets in. If Fox wanted him in they could just reject the NBC poll (question wording), IBD poll (not 'major') and the CBS poll (they could find reasons). That would leave Fox's own poll (where Chrsitie got 2%) and the latest from Quinni, ABC and Monmouth where he got 3%.  And if they picked those four it would also allow both Jindal and Pataki into the kiddie table, so the debate would end up exactly the same lineups as CNBC. The irony would be that Christie would be saved (in part) by Monmouth, a polling company he once said had it out for him.

[Likely Voter]

I see no reason why they would exclude CBS, my point was that if they wanted Christie in the main debate they would have to exclude CBS because all other scenarios end up with Christie out of the main debate. I don't think that will happen because while Fox News may be biased I actually trust their pollsters and the 'Decision Desk' people. But you never know, if Ailes really wanted Christie then maybe he would find a way to exert pressure to make it happen.

We will know if five hours but I am starting to think the final list will be Fox, Quinni, CBS, ABC and Monmouth (extending to five polls because ABC and Monmouth are the same age). That gives you this list

MAIN
Trump   26.40
Carson   22.40
Rubio   9.80
Cruz   8.80
Bush   5.40
Fiorina   4.80
Huckabee   3.20
Paul   3.20
Kasich   2.80

KIDDIE
Christie   2.40
Graham   0.80
Santorum   0.40
Jindal   0.20
Pataki   0.20

OUT
Gilmore

This also has the advantage of putting Trump center stage (he is more entertaining than Carson) and it puts Jindal and Pataki into the kiddie table, and more candidates probably makes that more interesting as well.

[Likely Voter]

One bit of good news for cord-cutters, Foxbusiness.com will stream for free.

[Likely Voter]

Christie says he is willing to go to the undercard...

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CLOSING THREAD IN FAVOR OF NEW POST-ANNOUNCEMENT THREAD
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=222470.0