CNBC sets rules for next GOP debate: 3% floor for main debate, 1% for kids table

[Likely Voter]

I like that they have switched to a basic criteria to qualify. I had suggested 2% average, they have gone for 2.5%. But sad to see they caved into pressure to have another undercard.

Also  I don't understand why they don't include live phone University Polls like Quinnipiac, Monmouth and USAToday/Suffolk. If the University polls were included (as they were for both Fox and CNN) it could make a big difference. For example, currently Paul would fall to the 6PM debate and Graham would qualify for the 6PM debate.

[Likely Voter]

Update with new FOX poll (avg includes 6 total polls)

Looks like Paul is safe, and kiddie table still only has 3 people with only one week left for new polls.

PRIMETIME DEBATE (need 2.5%)

Trump   23.83
Carson   18.67
Fiorina   9.50
Rubio   9.33
Bush   8.33
Cruz   7.17
Huckabee   3.50
Kasich   3.17
Christie   3.17
Paul   3.00

EARLY DEBATE (need 1% in one poll)
Santorum   0.67
Jindal   0.50
Pataki   0.33

NOT QUALIFIED
Graham   0.00
Gilmore   0.00

[Likely Voter]

Is there any specific rule that's excluding the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll released on 9/18?

The assumption is that NBC's Survey Monkey polls don't meet the "methodologically sound and recognized" criteria, but the live phone NBC/WSJ polls would meet it

[Likely Voter]

Is there any specific rule that's excluding the NBC/SurveyMonkey poll released on 9/18?

The assumption is that NBC's Survey Monkey polls don't meet the "methodologically sound and recognized" criteria, but the live phone NBC/WSJ polls would meet it

The poll criteria for previous debates explicitly prohibited any polls that weren't live operator polls, but CNBC's does not. I would find it very questionable if CNBC accused their own parent company of releasing a poll that wasn't methodologically sound!

Actually the first Fox GOP debate had the same kind of 'methodologically sound' criteria without mentioning live polling, but when they finally released a list of polls they used they were all live. The CNN debate also didn't specifically mention live, but their list of approved pollsters were all live phone. I dont think the Survey Monkey poll is going to make it in. There already is a NBC/WSJ in the average and it is possible they may have another one before the cutoff

[Likely Voter]

Politico is reporting that the CNBC debate will not have opening or closing statements and that some of the campaigns are pissed off.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/10/gop-rnc-cnbc-debate-call-214794

[Likely Voter]

What's everybody's predictions on whether or not they think Kasich and Christie will make the main debate?

There is almost no way that Kasich, Christie or Paul not make the debate. It would require something like 3 new polls out in the  next week and averaging 1% in all 3. The main CNBC debate lineup will be exactly the same as the last CNN debate (minus Walker of course). The only difference will be podium positions.

[Likely Voter]

Trump and Carson campaigns are threatening to pull out of the debate and have sent a formal letter saying they will only participate if they are guaranteed the debate lasts no longer than 2 hours and the candidates are allowed opening and closing statements.
http://www.scribd.com/doc/285226920/Trump-and-Carson-threaten-to-opt-out-of-CNBC-debate

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[Likely Voter]

looks like CNBC is going to change things to make Donald and Ben happy

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[Likely Voter]

CNBC is just trying to make sure there is a debate during the debate, with 10 candidates those opening and closing statements eat up time. That is why CNN extended their debate. If CNBC is going to be limited to 2 hours and has to have opening and closings, they should up the criteria to 4% (rounding from 3.5%). That would move 2-4 of the guys from the main stage into the kiddie debate, which only has 3 so far anyway.

Given a choice between being forced to the kiddie table or getting an opening and closing statement, I bet the low polling campaigns (Christie, Paul, Kasich, Huckabee) would suddenly get a whole lot more accommodating.

[Likely Voter]

Fiorina says Trump and Carson can't handle the heat

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[Likely Voter]

Update with new NBC/WSJ poll (avg includes 7 total polls)

No change since last poll except Fiorina dropped to 4th behind Rubio (but that still keeps her in the second tier for podium position). Graham and Gilmore have still failed to get 1% in a single qualified poll so neither have yet earned a spot in the kiddie table debate which still has only 3.

PRIMETIME DEBATE (need 2.5%)

Trump   24.00
Carson   19.14
Rubio   9.86
Fiorina   9.14
Bush   8.29
Cruz   7.43
Huckabee   3.43
Kasich   3.14
Christie   2.86
Paul   2.86

EARLY DEBATE (need 1% in one poll)
Santorum   0.57
Jindal   0.43
Pataki   0.29

NOT QUALIFIED
Graham   0.00
Gilmore   0.00


There are only 2 days left for new polls, with CNN and ABC/WaPo appearing possible. Paul and Christie are on the bubble but should be safe. If two polls come out, then they both need to average more than 1%. If only 1 new poll comes out they are safe no matter what (even if they only get 0%).

[Likely Voter]

Update with new CNN poll (avg includes 8 total polls)

This is probably the final update. The only change for the main debate is that Paul has actually jumped past Christie and is tied with Kasich for 8th place. Unsure how they will decide which one of them gets the better podium position and which one gets stuck on the end. As for the kiddie table debate, Graham has finally made it in, so Gilmore is again the odd man out.

PRIMETIME DEBATE (need 2.5%)
Trump   24.38
Carson   19.50
Rubio   9.63
Fiorina   8.50
Bush   8.25
Cruz   7.00
Huckabee   3.63
Kasich   3.13
Paul   3.13
Christie   3.00

EARLY DEBATE (need 1% in one poll)
Santorum   0.75
Jindal   0.38
Pataki   0.25
Graham   0.13

NOT QUALIFIED
Gilmore   0.00


So essentially the CNBC debate lineups will be exactly the same as the CNN debate, with the only differences being Rubio and Fiorina moving their podiums closer to The Donald and Bush and Cruz are moving farther away (and of course no Walker).

[Likely Voter]

Update with new ABC poll (from this thread https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221424.0)
(avg includes 9 total polls)

This is almost certainly going to be the last poll for the CNBC debate (unless Bloomberg or CBS surprises and has a new one). The change since the last one is that the contest below Trump and Carson has tightened up with Bush and Fiorina tied for fourth and Kasich, Christie and Paul are tied for eighth. More decimals don't help so they will have to come up with tie-breakers to determine who gets the better podium positions. Gilmore is still out.


PRIMETIME DEBATE (need 2.5%)

Trump   25.222
Carson   19.778
Rubio   9.667
Fiorina   8.111
Bush   8.111
Cruz   6.889
Huckabee   3.556
Kasich   3.000
Paul   3.000
Christie   3.000

EARLY DEBATE (need 1% in one poll)
Santorum   0.667
Jindal   0.333
Pataki   0.333
Graham   0.222

NOT QUALIFIED
Gilmore   0.000


BTW, some candidates are really benefiting from the polls immediately following the CNN debate. If you were to average the last 5 polls (like FOX did for the first debate) then Kasich and Christie would not meet the 2.5% criteria, and Fiorina would drop to 6th place (with Cruz in 4th).

[Likely Voter]

Paul  Christie  Cruz  Fiorina  Carson  Trump  Rubio  Bush  Huckabee  Kasich 

[Likely Voter]

I hadn't thought about it before, but I guess based on the press releases for both this debate and the Fox Business debate, both of the two upcoming GOP debates will be about economic issues.  We won't have another GOP debate covering social issues or foreign policy until mid-December.

Any thoughts on how this might play out, that both of these next two GOP debates are economy-focused?

I was surprised when I saw how they had CNBC and FNB right after each other and both about the economy. Foreign Policy is such a big deal now within the GOP that it will be weird to have two debates in a row without it, except when talking trade.

This might help Trump, that big lull in the last debate where he didnt talk for 35 minutes was about national security/foreign policy. But a whole debate dedicated to economy could get into detailed budget issues and he can get into trouble. Ben Carson will certainly be out of his depth, but then again his supporters seem to be forgiving of his ignorance.

[Likely Voter]

I dont remember reading anything about how the CNN debate was supposed to be foreign policy.