Huckabee the favorite to win the Adelson primary?

[Likely Voter]

I think Huck may run just to make a statement. He may not want to be president, but he wants to give the evangelical wing a stronger voice in the party. He has been whining about how they are being taken for granted for a while. The recent silence from most in the party after SCOTUS defacto made SSM legal in most of the country pissed him off.  Hey loves making money on FOX but he can afford to take a year off and build his brand, and the money from Adelson wont hurt. If he has to throw in some lines about how great Israel is to his basic stump speech to get the Adelson cash, I'm sure he would be happy to do it.

If Huck gets in, Santorum might as well stay home as he was Huckabee-lite and a Catholic to boot.

[Likely Voter]

There is NO way he wins.  The evangelical crowd are influential in the GOP, but they're still a small minority.

The evangelical crowd is a small minority of all voters, but they are a significant part of the GOP. Exit polls in 2012 showed 19% of all voters were White Born Again AND voted for Romney, compare that to 32% of self-identified Republicans and you actually have 2/3s of Republican voters being White Evangelical. If you drill down more to Protestants who attend church weekly and/or those who think abortion should be illegal in ALL cases (including Rape) then you get to maybe 1/3 of GOP voters, which is still a significant portion. Remember Huckabee won IA with 34% of the vote in 2008.

Huckabee would stand a reasonable chance of winning assuming that Perry and/or Cruz is not able to cut too much into his base in the same way that Thompson did back in 04 (which probably cost him from winning SC, which was the turning point for McCain)