Electoral College problems for Republicans

[Likely Voter]

Obama's 39% with whites is actually quite low. It is worse than both Gore and Kerry. It is even worse than Dukakis. As I have noted here before, if Hillary just gets Kerry's numbers with whites and non-whites, then it goes from a modest GOP victory to essentially tied PV with winner coming down to just how many whites show up vs. non-whites. And bear in mind that Bush in 04 got record high numbers with Latinos and Asians (around 44%) by pushing comprehensive immigration reform and even got 11% of blacks (matching his Dad's numbers in 1988).

To win in 2016 the GOP needs a candidate that can get Romney numbers with whites and Bush 04 numbers with non-whites. Good luck with that.

[Likely Voter]

The GOP have an EV path that is very doable, it is the states Bush won at least once (minus NM and NV). So Romney + FL, OH, VA, CO, IA,  NH gets you to 285. They should spend 90%+ of their cash on these states (including NC and any other Romney states the Dems go after)

This path allows some buffer with a loss of one or even two small states, but FL and OH are 'must win' in this scenario (realistically it is hard to see any GOP victory without both). Don't get distracted by PA, MI, WI, NV or other so-called battlegrounds unless you really see some traction in any of them (or have a favorite son, like Romney did with Ryan in WI).