OH, Ras: Romney in the lead

[Likely Voter]

If Rasmussen's model of the electorate is accurate, then I'm sure Romney will win OH and a few other states. One question is, how much does Rasmussen's national reweighting apply to their OH poll as OH has been shown to be bucking the national trend, especially with white men.

[Likely Voter]

If you look at the final polls in 2008 of the three states where Obama had the smallest margin of victory (IN, NC and FL), Rasmussen had McCain winning all 3. Of the remaining 7 battlegrounds won by Obama Rasmussen underestimated Obama's lead in all but one (MN), by an average of around 3.7%.  Specifically for OH, the final Rasmussen poll had Obama tied. He won OH by 4.6.


BTW, PPP called every state right, but even they generally underestimated Obama by 1.5 points.