Romney's path without Ohio, Hint: There is none

[Likely Voter]

OH+WI+NV does seem to be Obama's last line of defense in the case of Romney being able to shift the race nationally back in his direction. I would guess that even if Romney had a small PV win, he wouldn't be able to take any of those three, he would need a 1-2% PV win before one of those three fell his way. 

[Likely Voter]

This OH problem is really part of Romney's bigger weakness which is the entire Rust Belt. From the beginning they have failed to bring PA and MI into play. WI also appears to be back in that category and OH has gone from trend R to trend D. This general Rust Belt weakness has put Romney onto the EV defensive since the beginning.  I think this is all about "let Detroit go bankrupt" combined with the general Thurston Howell thing. Even though these states dont have big non-white populations (so they should be good targets), Romney has just been the wrong candidate for working class whites in this region.

[Likely Voter]

If we assume Romney's baseline to win is McCain+IN, NC, FL, VA, CO. Then he has five routes to win:
1. OH
2. NV+IA (269/269 tie) +NH (win)
3. WI + anything
4. MI
5. PA

They seem to have given up on MI and PA. They have been trying in WI but it doesn't look any easier than OH at this point. So that does leave him with just NV+IA+NH. Of those NV would be the hardest but its doable.