Republican Primary headed for a deal?

[Likely Voter]

Romney came into Super Tuesday with a majority of delegates and he left with an even bigger majority of delegates. So how is it suddenly "clear" that he will not end the primary season with a majority.

Sure it's possible that he will only end with a plurality, but winning with a majority still seems to be the more likely outcome.

And if he comes out short, he will work out a deal with whoever can put him over the top. Assuming Paul has enough delegates to make up the shortfall he seems a likely choice as he can probably be bought with some additions of his issues to the platform and a prime time speaking slot. Santorum would likely demand space on the ticket. Not sure what Gingrich would ask for, but they dont get a long so he is not likely to work with Newt.

[Likely Voter]

Despite winning, Romney can't shake the zombies chasing him.

 
Well again he has won more delegates than all of those zombies combined

I didn't realize this, but there are only four or five winner-take-all states left.  That means Romney may keep winning, but with just 40% wins he's not going to come close to the 1144 mark.  

That assumes he only wins delegates in states he wins. So far Romney has won delegates in EVERY contest. He is the only one who can say that

The reason it now seems likely he won't earn 1144 through the voting process is because he failed to deliver a knockout blow that would effectively end the resistance to him.  

How is that a reason? You dont need to elimate your competion to win, you just need a majority of delegates. And again he has won a majority of delegates so far with the competition he has had and that competition shows no sign of getting stronger.

Heading into yesterday, the spin was Romney was closing fast in TN and GA while pulling away in OH.  Yet everywhere we look, he underperform the expectations.

He won 6 out of 10 states and came in second in the 3 of the remaining 4, and he won OH, a state where he was trailing a week before. He won more GA delegates than Santorum and more TN delegates than Newt.

Romney's path is not pretty, and it is not guaranteed. But he is on a path to wrapping this thing up in May or June. It is possible that Santorum and/or Gingrich could surge and prevent him from getting a majority, but there is no evidence that this Santorum/Gingrich surge is the most likely outcome.

Personally I am hoping to see an open convention, and it is possible. But it certainly isn't the likely outcome.

[Likely Voter]

I would put it at
Romney wins majority of delegates: 80%
Romney + Super/Uncommitted = Majority: 10%
Romney ends with plurality and cuts deal before convention 9.9%
something else 0.1%

[Likely Voter]

Here's the math John Avlon of Daily Beast did.  

Consider this: if Mitt wins every remaining all-or-nothing state but one, and half of the remaining proportional delegates, he would likely still fall short of the magic nomination number of 1,144.

That simply doesn't add up.

Mitt needs 757 to get to 1144 (according to CNN)
There are 1565 unallocated delegates.

Romney only needs 48.4% of the remaining delegates to win. So obviously if he got half he would win even bigger and if he got half of some and all of the remaining (the WTA) he would win even bigger

[Likely Voter]

Again. You dont need a majority of votes to win a majority of delegates. In 2008 John McCain was the presumptive nominee by March and he still ended up with only 46% of the popular vote.

[Likely Voter]

Another to view the chase for delegates was stated by Chuck Todd on MSNBC this morning.  He says the view is Romney must win between 45% to 47% of all remaining delegates to win.  His throwing the WTA states in with the proportional states, but he's just making the point as to how many Romney must still win.  As I said, if Romney is only getting 40% in competative states and Santorum doesn't fall apart, what is the reason to believe Romney suddenly starts getting 45% to 47% of the vote?  Of course, that could all change if Romney wins in the south next week.

Once again, there is not a one to one relationship between popular vote % and delegate winnings. Romney has garnered a majority of delegates with a plurality of votes. And he can continue to do so all the way to Utah. That is how the delegate math works.

Even John McCain didn't get a majority of votes in 2008 and he was the presumptive nominee by March.

[Likely Voter]

Again I never said it was easy or a given. I just reject the notion that it is more likely for Romney to fall short.

He is going to have a rough couple of weeks with three southern primaries and I think by the end of March he may no longer have a majority, But April is going to be a very good month for him with lots north east primaries so it is hard to imagine him not making up for that lost ground and again having a good sized majority at the end of April, but still well short of what he needs. Then May is again going to be a tough month, with some wins and losses, but picking up delegates all the way, with Texas as his biggest challenge. If he can make it through May with anything close to 50% of total delegates awarded so far, then he has it in the bag with a series of friendly primaries in June (CA, NJ, UT, NM).

[Likely Voter]

No one is arguing with the notion that Romney might not make his 1144 number. The pushback was on your OP where you said it was "likely" that he would not make it. If you read Silver's article today he makes the point that the baseline (which includes Gingrich dropping out next week) still has Romney making the number and that even if Santorum gets a bump, Romney can still get the number with the uncommitted delegates.

Things dont get into the territory where Romney needs to cut a deal until Santorum starts winning lots of states, including California.