National Tracking Poll Thread

[Likely Voter]

It makes me wonder, did something amazing happen for Romney on Sunday. We have the Gallup poll suddenly lurch to Romney and the PPP poll had that big pro Romney Sunday sample.

[Likely Voter]

IBD/TIPP

Obama 46.8 (-.5)
Romney 45.4 (-.4)

[Likely Voter]

Well I updated TIPP, it is actually Obama 1.4 so rounded down to Obama+1.

The avg of all tracking polls concluded yesterday would be Obama +0.1

[Likely Voter]

The tracking polls are continuing to diverge into craziness, but it is hard to dismiss Gallup entirely. It is weird that the guy who is 7 points down on Gallup 20 days before the election is still considered the favorite.

[Likely Voter]

The tracking polls are continuing to diverge into craziness, but it is hard to dismiss Gallup entirely. It is weird that the guy who is 7 points down on Gallup 20 days before the election is still considered the favorite.

It's even more weird to have an incumbent with 50% approval rating losing the election by 7. One of these numbers doesn't make sense, or both. But they can't be both right. If Obama is at or around 50% on November 6th, he will be most likely reelected.

That should be true but bear in mind that Gallup's approval rating number is for all adults, which has always been much more Dem friendly. Basically Gallup's assessment of the country is that if they all voted, Obama would win, but a huge chunk of dem friendly citizens cant be bothered to register and many of those who do still wont bother voting

[Likely Voter]

At this point I dont know what to believe with the polling. This year there are supposed to be very few undecideds and yet we are seeing polls diverge not consolidate as we get closer to the end. It is just weird. Of course it is a cherry pickers dream. One can pick a set of recent polls showing EV and PV victories for either candidate

[Likely Voter]

Summarizing the trackers for the day (with rounding)...

Gallup   R+7
Rasmussen R+2
TIPP TIE
PPP  TIE
Reuters O+3
RAND 0+6

avg  TIE

[Likely Voter]

I think that a couple things are happening with Gallup. First their LV model is too skewed to GOP (assuming they are using the same one as 2010 which was off by 8 points even in a big GOP year), and I think they ended up with a big red state pro-romney sample in there (the +22 in the south was a red flag) and these two things have resulted in an outlier. It happens. Of course the RAND poll may be just as fishy with its mirror image on the other side.

[Likely Voter]

Summarizing all Friday tracking polls (and change from prev)

Reuters Obama+3 (O+1)
RAND Obama +4 (R+2)
Rasmussen  TIE (O+2)
PPP  Obama +1 (O+1)
Gallup   Romney +6  (O+1)
TIPP Obama +2  (O+2)
  
avg  Obama +0.7 (O+0.8 )

Note: All polls rounded for apples to apples comparison, avg rounded to 1 decimal place. Reuters poll will be released later today, but that contains data from today so this is summary of polls with data ending yesterday (two days of post debate)

[Likely Voter]

I fixed something the change since the day before is Obama+0.8. My summary yesterday was a TIE but I was including Reuters which included two days post-debate when all other polls just had one day. So today's summary is more apples/apples.

Also PPP is going to start releasing their tracker the same night starting tonight. So by the end of the day we will have 2 polls with 3 days of post debate data (if Rueters doesn't skip reporting today as the do sometimes). TIPP appears to be the last to report so hopefully I or someone can do a summary every day after they do.

[Likely Voter]

Saturday tracking poll summary* (and change from prev)

RAND Obama +3 (R+1)
Reuters* Obama+3 (-)
TIPP Obama +3  (O+1)
PPP  Obama +2 (O+1)
Rasmussen  Romney +1 (R+1)
Gallup   Romney +6  (-)
 
avg  Obama +0.5 (R+0.2)

*All polls showing rounded up data up to Friday, with 3 days of post-debate. Reuters and PPP now report same day, above data is on their data reported yesterday for apples/apples comparisons

[Likely Voter]

Saturday tracking poll summary* (and change from prev)

RAND Obama +3 (R+1)
Reuters* Obama+3 (-)
TIPP Obama +3  (O+1)
PPP  Obama +2 (O+1)
Rasmussen  Romney +1 (R+1)
Gallup   Romney +6  (-)
 
avg  Obama +0.5 (R+0.2)

*All polls showing rounded up data up to Friday, with 3 days of post-debate. Reuters and PPP now report same day, above data is on their data reported yesterday for apples/apples comparisons

Yes, Obama definitely has clear momentum.

Sigh.

Hard to say if either has momentum. Obama has gained about 1 point since the debate in the trackers but it may be flattening out again or trending back to Romney. I think on Monday we will have a better idea as all the pre-debate data will be gone. There is also an NBC national poll coming out Sunday and I assume another battleground poll from Politico.

[Likely Voter]

Yes NBC/WSJ poll released during MTP Sunday morning. I'm going to guess Obama +1. Last one was done right before Debate 1 and had Obama +3.

[Likely Voter]

Alan Abrmowitz says that Gallup is an outlier because their LV model is excluding too many non-whites...

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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alan-abramowitz/election-polls-gallup_b_1989865.html?utm_hp_ref=@pollster

Unlike the obsession with party ID weighting, race is something that really matters.

Even the Romney campaign is working on the assumption that 26% of the electorate will be non-white
http://www.nationaljournal.com/thenextamerica/politics/obama-needs-80-of-minority-vote-to-win-2012-presidential-election-20120824

[Likely Voter]

Sunday tracking poll summary* (and change from prev)

TIPP Obama +6  (O+3)
RAND Obama +2 (R+1)
Reuters Obama+1 (R+2)
PPP  TIE (R+2)
Rasmussen  Romney +2 (R+1)
Gallup   Romney +7  (R+1)
  
avg  TIE  (R+0.5)

*All polls showing rounded up data up to Friday, with 3 days of post-debate. Reuters and PPP now report same day, above data is on their data reported yesterday for apples/apples comparisons

[Likely Voter]

HuffPo/Pollster has some news on Rasmussen's weighting changes. They moved from weighting D+3 to D+1.

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[Likely Voter]

Umengus

Serious question. What is your point when you note party ID. Just noting the number is pointless, so what is your opinion of it? Are you noting how this poll has an interesting shift of enthusiasm from one to the other? Or are you saying that there is some right number and that this number is wrong and therefore the poll is wrong? And if so do you believe all pollsters should be weighting their polls like Rasmussen and if so what is the 'right' number?

otherwise what's the point of posting the number. Say what you believe.

[Likely Voter]

Monday Summary

PPP
Obama 48
Romney 48

Rasmussen
Obama 49
Romney 47

RAND (Rounded)
Obama 48
Romney 46

Gallup
Obama 45
Romney 51 (-1)

Reuters
Obama 46 (-1) [Change since Sat, Skipped reporting Sunday]
Romney 46

TIPP (Rounded)
Obama 47 (-1)
Romney 43 (+1)


Lead Summary
TIPP Obama +4 (R+2)
RAND Obama +2
PPP  TIE
Reuters* TIE (R+1)
Rasmussen  Romney +2
Gallup   Romney +6  (O+1)
  
Average: Romney +0.3 (R+0.3)

[Likely Voter]

Tuesday Summary

NOTE: Today adds two trackers (UPI & ABC).

PPP
Obama 47 (-1)
Romney 49 (+1)

Rasmussen
Obama 46 (-1)
Romney 50 (+1)

RAND (Rounded)
Obama 48
Romney 46

Gallup
Obama 46 (+1)
Romney 51

Reuters
Obama 47 (+1)
Romney 46

TIPP (Rounded)
Obama 47
Romney 45 (R+2)

UPI
Obama 48 (+1)
Romney 48

ABC
Obama 48(-1)
Romney 49 (+1)


Lead Summary
RAND Obama +2
TIPP Obama +2 (R+2)
Reuters Obama +1 (O+1)
UPI TIE (O+1)
ABC Romney +1 (R+2)
PPP Romney +2 (R+2)
Rasmussen  Romney +4 (R+2)
Gallup   Romney +5  (O+1)
  
Average: Romney +0.9 (R+0.6)

[Likely Voter]

Funny that our tracker average has R +0.9 and the TPM tracker average is O +0.5
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/us-president-12

What the Track?

Actually their PollTracker is tracking more than just the trackers. For example the YouGov and NBC polls help move it more to Obama. Also I am rounding for apples to apples. They are going to one decimal place and today's ABC/WaPo poll is such that rounding makes it better for Romney.  I might consider doing one decimal place in the future but its more of a hassle. I might have to actually get a piece of paper out instead of just doing the avg in my head.

[Likely Voter]

EDIT: Fixed error on Reuters

Wednesday Summary

PPP
Obama  48 (+1)
Romney 48 (-1)

Rasmussen
Obama  46
Romney 50

RAND (Rounded)
Obama  49 (+1)
Romney 45 (-1)

Gallup
Obama  47 (+1)
Romney 50 (-1)

Reuters
Obama  46 (-1)
Romney 47 (+1)

TIPP (Rounded)
Obama  47
Romney 44 (-1)

UPI
Obama  49 (+1)
Romney 47 (-1)

ABC
Obama  48
Romney 49


Lead Summary
Rand:      Obama +4  (O+2)
TIPP:      Obama +3  (O+1)
UPI:       Obama +2  (O+2)
PPP:       TIE       (O+2)
Reuters:   Romney +1  (R+2)
ABC:       Romney +1 (-)
Gallup:    Romney +3 (O+2)
Rasmussen: Romney +4 (-)
 
Average: Tied (O+0.9)

[Likely Voter]

Fixed. The race is tied. It has returned to where it was on Sunday.  Hard to say if yesterday's Romney surge and today's Obama surge are anything more than noise.

[Likely Voter]

WaPo/ABC poll is unchanged

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/24/post-abc-tracking-poll-obama-wins-final-debate-romney-gains-supporters/

[Likely Voter]

THis is interesting

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So is Romney ahead the new normal with Obama getting little bumps from the last two debates? or has Obama turned it around?

[Likely Voter]

Thursday Summary

Rand:      Obama +4  (-)  
TIPP:      Obama +2  (R+1)
UPI:       Obama +2  [no new poll]
PPP:       Obama +1  (O+1)
Reuters:   Romney +1 (-)
ABC:       Romney +3 (R+2)
Gallup:    Romney +3 (-)
Rasmussen: Romney +3 (O+1)
  
Average: Romney +0.1 (R+0.1)