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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 312717 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #50 on: September 20, 2012, 04:23:50 PM »
Today's RAND chart  is just brutal for Romney. 
https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/index.php?page=election

I have no idea if it is a good methodology or not. I agree with Nate Silver that it is an interesting way of doing things.  If it turns out to be close to accurate I wonder if other pollsters will use the same approach
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #51 on: September 20, 2012, 04:36:28 PM »
i agree that it at least gives a good idea of trends. But obviously if they started with a bad sample then they are stuck with it. I don't know what they did to mitigate that, but it is a very large sample.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #52 on: September 23, 2012, 02:47:37 PM »
Looks like Romney supporters on cable news will have to remove "it's tied on Gallup" from their talking points. This morning on MTP Bay Buchannana screamed "its a dead heat" half a dozen time.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #53 on: September 23, 2012, 04:31:02 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on September 23, 2012, 03:23:08 PM
Quote from: 47% Voter on September 23, 2012, 02:47:37 PM
Looks like Romney supporters on cable news will have to remove "it's tied on Gallup" from their talking points. This morning on MTP Bay Buchannana screamed "its a dead heat" half a dozen time.

They'll just jump from Gallup to Rasmussen.

True but when anyone says "but Rasmussen says..." is obviously grasping at straws to anyone except the most hackish.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #54 on: September 26, 2012, 12:09:11 PM »
On Sunday "it's tied on Gallup" was the talking point.

On Monday and Tuesday it was "It's statistically tied on Gallup"

Today: "Gallup is just another hack liberal pollster overestimating Democrats*"


*btw only trust Gallup when analyzing how this race is just like 1976, except ignore the president's Gallup approval rating in 1980 vs. 2012
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #55 on: September 26, 2012, 05:42:38 PM »
Ipsos/Reuters:

LV
Obama 49 (-)
Romney 43 (+1)

RV
Obama 47 (-1)
Romney 40 (+1)


Sept 22-26, 2012
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #56 on: September 27, 2012, 03:04:58 PM »
Today Nate Silver wrote about how Rasmussen is the only poll showing anything good for Romney  noting...

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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #57 on: September 28, 2012, 05:53:59 PM »
Ipsos/Reuters:

LV
Obama 47 (-2)
Romney 42 (-)

RV
Obama 46 (-2)
Romney 39 (+1)


Sept 24-28 2012
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #58 on: September 29, 2012, 12:33:35 PM »
RAND

Obama 50.27
Romney 43.23

It seems to have stabilized. If the Rand poll rounded like other polls, then Obama would have been at 50 with Romney at 44/43  for the last week.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #59 on: October 01, 2012, 12:09:11 PM »
Monday 1 October

Gallup: Obama +4
Obama - 49% (-)
Romney - 45% (+1)

Obama ticked up one on approval to 47/46


RAND: Obama +6.21
Obama - 50.06% (-0.15)
Romney - 43.75% (+0.42)
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #60 on: October 04, 2012, 02:50:19 PM »
Past exit polling shows that only 22%-25% haven't made up their minds by the end of September. This year I bet the number could be as low as 20%. So for the other 80%, watching lat night is like watching sports. You root for your team, but you arent going to become a fan of the opponent just because your team lost.

That being said, I still suspect that within the 20% of persadables, Romney has probably changed some minds and that will probably show up as a bump in the polls. Losing a debate has a ripple effect in social media, among friends and family and via the media. There is a week or so of Obama as a loser and that has to hurt.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #61 on: October 05, 2012, 01:58:41 PM »
Quote from: Reds4 on October 05, 2012, 12:03:30 PM
Must have been one heck of a Romney sample that just dropped off this tracker.

Quote from: ajb on October 05, 2012, 06:33:33 AM
Rand American Life Panel, Oct 2-3-4:

Obama   49.76   49.17   49.87
Romney  44.22   44.83   43.98



Well the unique thing about this poll is that it is the same exact sample every day, so that doesn't explain the fluctuation.

That being said if you were rounding up RAND like other polls then it has been very consistent for the last couple of weeks with Obama holding at 50 (except for yesterday at 49) and Romney at 43/44 (again except for yesterday at 45).
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #62 on: October 06, 2012, 12:09:03 PM »
Gallup

Obama 49% (-1)
Romney 46%( +1)


Romney's post-debate bounce continues.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #63 on: October 06, 2012, 04:23:12 PM »
RAND

Obama: 49.18 (-0.69)
Romney: 44.75 (+0.76)
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #64 on: October 07, 2012, 02:45:23 PM »
RAND:
Obama: 48.95 (-.23)
Romney: 45.10 (+.35)

Romney has got about a 2 point bounce since pre-debate (he's up 1, Obama down 1)

RE: Reuters
Before debate it was Obama 46/Romney 41. So there he has a 3 point bounce. (He's up 4, Obama down 1)
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #65 on: October 08, 2012, 07:23:29 PM »
Is Gallup sticking with 7 day or switching to 3 day? If it is 3 day, then Romney may be ahead in LV.

Also dont see a Reuters/Ipsos today. They seem to take days off every once in a while.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #66 on: October 09, 2012, 03:09:21 PM »
Is this going to be a daily poll? if so shouldnt it be in the national tracking thread?
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #67 on: October 09, 2012, 06:57:12 PM »
What's interesting is that the big swing towards Romney seems to be more related to an LV swing, RVs are staying the same. The Gallup RV today is 49/46 or Obama +3, it was 49/45 (Obama +4) a week ago. The same is true for the Ipsos poll. While LV has gone from Obama+5 to tied, RV has remained exactly the same as Obama +3. This, along with the party ID switches seen in other polls, shows how what is changing is not people switching from Romney to Obama but a surge in Romney voter enthusiasm and a reduction in Obama voter enthusiasm. This is also born out by Obama approval remaining relatively stable over the week as well (and still in the 49/50 range).

So the question is: will this new enthusiasm gap be the new normal?
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #68 on: October 10, 2012, 10:50:13 PM »
Gallup job approval is (and always has been) a measure of all adults. By that measure it is still a little whiter than census data
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #69 on: October 12, 2012, 03:31:40 PM »

That poll actually contains some data from today, so if one were to read too much into this...then BIDEN BUMP!  Not that I believe that is the case
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #70 on: October 14, 2012, 06:43:54 PM »
So now Obama is leading in 3 trackers and trailing in 2. This is quite the close one
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #71 on: October 15, 2012, 02:50:21 PM »
I think RCP just excludes internet polls
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #72 on: October 15, 2012, 04:56:56 PM »
RAND poll
Obama 49.56
Romney 44.94

It continues to show Romney's bounce fading. The results are around where they were before the Obama/Romney debate.

Of course we still dont know if their methodology makes any sense at all, but they have nice graphs and lots of decimal places so it has to be good!
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #73 on: October 16, 2012, 02:13:02 PM »
What is clear now is that there are some outlier polls. What isn't clear is which ones are the outliers.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #74 on: October 17, 2012, 11:57:29 AM »
RAND
Obama 49.07
Romney 45.16

That's about a 1 point bump up for Romney, pretty big for one day in this poll
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