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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 312807 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #25 on: September 01, 2012, 06:45:39 PM »
« edited: September 01, 2012, 06:47:46 PM by Invisible Voter »
Reuters Ipsos


Obama +1
Obama: 44 (+1)
Romney: 43 (-1)  


http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/01/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE87U1CJ20120901
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: September 02, 2012, 12:36:45 PM »
« Edited: September 02, 2012, 12:40:20 PM by Invisible Voter »
Sunday:

Rasmussen (LV): Romney +4  
Obama     44
Romney     48 (+1)

Gallup (RV): Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46


1 week ago

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47
Romney     45

Gallup: tied
Obama     46
Romney     46
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #27 on: September 03, 2012, 12:05:18 PM »
Monday:

Rasmussen (LV): Romney +4  
Obama     44
Romney     48

Gallup (RV): Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46



1 week ago

Rasmussen: Obama +3
Obama     47
Romney     44

Gallup: Romney +1
Obama     46
Romney     47


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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: September 03, 2012, 02:22:28 PM »
Reuters IPSOS

LV: tied  
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     45 (+2)

RV: Obama +1
Obama     43 (+1)
Romney     42 (+1)


1 week ago

LV: Obama +4  
Obama     46
Romney     42

RV: Obama +6
Obama     45
Romney     39
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #29 on: September 04, 2012, 12:02:48 PM »
Monday:

Rasmussen (LV): Romney +2  
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     47 (-1)

Gallup (RV): Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46

1 week ago

Rasmussen: Obama +2
Obama     47
Romney     45

Gallup: Romney +1
Obama     46
Romney     47
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #30 on: September 04, 2012, 01:04:23 PM »
« Edited: September 04, 2012, 01:07:52 PM by Invisible Voter »
i posted it yesterday
 
Quote from: Invisible Voter on September 03, 2012, 02:22:28 PM
Reuters IPSOS

LV: tied  
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     45 (+2)

RV: Obama +1
Obama     43 (+1)
Romney     42 (+1)


1 week ago

LV: Obama +4  
Obama     46
Romney     42

RV: Obama +6
Obama     45
Romney     39


keep track here
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #31 on: September 04, 2012, 01:22:52 PM »
I guess you are right. that is the latest they have released.

Its unclear if this poll is going to go beyond the DNC. Maybe it doesn't even belong in this thread.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #32 on: September 04, 2012, 02:49:49 PM »
The post RNC polls have been a mixed bag with no consensus. There is some evidence of little or no bounce and some of a good sized bounce.

now that the DNC has started we may never really know. But it is clear that since pre-Ryan, the race has tightened to close to a tie. The challenge for the Dems is to use their convention to put things back the way they were in July/early August.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #33 on: September 04, 2012, 04:15:33 PM »
permanent? Nothing is permanent.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #34 on: September 06, 2012, 01:10:53 PM »
The gallup horserace number has been surprisingly steady for the last month. It has held between Romney+1 to Obama+1 for a month.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #35 on: September 07, 2012, 02:24:44 PM »
The Gallup poll has been very very very stead for the last month. It has either been tied or with Romney or Obama +1.

And if last month's job report didnt hurt Obama, why will this month's hurt him?
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #36 on: September 07, 2012, 03:04:28 PM »
Is ARG going to start daily tracking?
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #37 on: September 08, 2012, 05:05:00 PM »
I could have sworn someone here was arguing a week ago that Romney had established a new permanent lead.   Because of course things never change in politics.

Anyway it appears that the DNC is getting a bigger bump than even RNC bump + Ryan bump. I still believe the race will settle into Obama +2 by the end of the month. Of course this could be Obama + 4 in most of the country but Obama +1 or tied in the swing states getting the Romney carpet bombing.

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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #38 on: September 08, 2012, 06:45:03 PM »
Quote from: brittain33 on September 08, 2012, 06:34:26 PM
Seriously, people think that the number "90,000 jobs gained" is going to make any sizable impact in voters' intentions?

Really?

Yes you know all those working class white suburban "Walmart moms" in Ohio are now saying "analysts were expecting 125,000 jobs! I'm Voting Romney!"
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #39 on: September 10, 2012, 05:21:31 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2012, 05:23:42 PM by Invisible Voter »
Reuters is out...here is daily summary for Monday:

Rasmussen (LV): Obama +5  
Obama     50 (+1)
Romney     45 (-)

Gallup (RV): Obama +5
Obama     49 (-)
Romney     44 (-)

Reuters/Ipsos (LV): Obama +5
Obama     48 (+1)
Romney     43 (-)

1 week ago

Rasmussen (LV): Romney +2
Obama     45 (+1)
Romney     47 (-1)

Gallup (RV): Obama +1
Obama     47
Romney     46

Reuters/Ipsos (LV): Romney +1 [Tuesday]
Obama  45
Romney 46


Avg 1 week change Obama +5.66

My thoughts:
Suspect today may be the peak of Obama's DNC bounce for the trackers
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #40 on: September 12, 2012, 04:15:20 PM »
« Edited: September 12, 2012, 05:51:19 PM by Smirking Voter »
Reuters Ipsos LV: Obama +3

Obama:   48 (+2)
Romney:  45 (+2)

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/us/2012-election/


EDIT: I looked closer and the poll was not from the daily tracker which is an online poll. This was a standard phone poll
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #41 on: September 13, 2012, 07:04:59 PM »
Strangely both today's and Monday's Ipsos/Reuters tracking poll shows Obama with a bigger lead in LV. The same was true with the Fox poll. Most others (especially the ABC/WaPo) still show the traditional GOP LV advantage but it could be the enthusiasm gap has narrowed
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #42 on: September 17, 2012, 12:47:33 PM »
Gallup is unchanged

Obama: 48
Romney: 45


Approval is also unchanged at 50/44
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #43 on: September 17, 2012, 01:41:25 PM »
You really start to see the power of Rasmussen whenever you see any GOP pundit on TV. Whenever someone talks about the polls and how Romney is losing they always say "well the Rasmussen poll shows...."  On Real Time with Ball Maher some GOPer started that and then everyone just started laughing at him. Of course it was a liberal group but even the GOPer seemed half-heated about the whole thing.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #44 on: September 17, 2012, 03:24:45 PM »
WaPo has an article today just about what I was saying on how important Rasmussen is to the GOP polling pushback

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/09/17/rasmussen-the-gops-cure-for-the-common-poll/
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #45 on: September 17, 2012, 04:50:12 PM »
Ipsos/Reuters: Obama +5

LV
Obama 48
Romney 43

Their last poll was from last Thursday which had Obama 48/Romney 41. Don't know if this is still a daily tracker or a 'periodic tracker'
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #46 on: September 18, 2012, 01:13:40 PM »
Irony alert, Obama polling at 47% at Gallup, Romney polling at 47% at Rasmussen.

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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #47 on: September 18, 2012, 06:35:40 PM »
Ipsos/Reuters: Obama +4

LV
Obama 47 (-1)
Romney 43

They also have this on Libya/Embassy thing
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/18/us-usa-campaign-libya-idUSBRE88H1BY20120918
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #48 on: September 19, 2012, 05:06:08 PM »
Ipsos/Reuters: Obama +5

LV
Obama 48 (+1)
Romney 43
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #49 on: September 19, 2012, 05:11:02 PM »
That is an all time Obama high and largest lead for the RAND poll.
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