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Author Topic: National Tracking Poll Thread  (Read 312506 times)
Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #100 on: October 26, 2012, 01:18:48 PM »
Friday Summary (w/UPI)

Rand:      Obama +6  (O+2) 
TIPP:      Obama +2  (-)
UPI*:      Obama +1  (R+1)
Reuters:   Obama +1  (O+2)
PPP:       TIED      (R+1)
ABC:       Romney +1 (O+2)
Rasmussen: Romney +3 (-)
Gallup:    Romney +5 (R+2)
 
Average:   Obama +0.1 (O+0.2)


*UPI Poll 1 day old
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #101 on: October 26, 2012, 04:30:05 PM »
If you pull the high and low polls (Rand and Gallup) then today's average is a tie. Not that I think that's the right way to do things. I don't think you can completely dismiss any poll. If Gallup's assessment of the electorate (notably the white/non-white mix) is correct, then Romney is going to win, probably in a big way. I'm guessing the Rand mix shows the opposite (although not sure they have revealed their demographics).   Right now the difference in polling comes down to a combo of random noise and LV model assumptions (and in some cases active weighting).

In a couple of weeks we will know who was 'right' but for now there is no consensus in the results because the assumptions are different.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #102 on: October 27, 2012, 04:14:30 PM »
Another day of no-mentum, plus no polls from UPI or ABC/WaPo

SaturdaySummary

POLL: Lead (day change)

Rand:     Obama +6  (-)  
TIPP:      Obama +2  (-)   
Reuters: Obama +2  (O+1)
UPI:       Obama +1  (no poll)   
PPP:       TIED      (-)   
ABC:      Romney +1 (no poll)   
Rasmussen: Romney +4 (R+1)
Gallup:    Romney +5 (-)   
  
Average:   Obama +0.1 (-)
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #103 on: October 27, 2012, 06:25:38 PM »
I suspect that the methodology and/or samples feeding into Rasmussen, Gallup AND Rand are off the mark. None of them are currently matching up with state polling and all feel off. Or they are geniuses and have nailed the right view that everyone else missed. We shouldnt ignore them completely but the all seems to have an alternate view of the electorate.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #104 on: October 28, 2012, 01:43:18 PM »
Sunday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +7  (O+1)   [O+5]
Reuters:   Obama +3  (O+1)   [O+2] 
TIPP:      Obama +1  (R+1)   [R+5]   
PPP:       Romney +1 (R+1)   [-]   
ABC:       Romney +1 (-)     [N/A]   
Rasmussen: Romney +3 (O+1)   [R+1]
Gallup:    Romney +4 (O+1)   [O+3]   

UPI*:      (no poll)   

Average:   Obama +0.3 (O+0.3)    [O+0.7]


*last UPI poll 2 days old (Obama +1) not included in summary or average.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344
« Reply #105 on: October 28, 2012, 04:57:12 PM »
It's hilarious to see people scream. TOO MANY Ds/NOT ENOUGH Rs! and Indies SUPPORT ROMNEY! and not realize they solved their own dilemma already.
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Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344
« Reply #106 on: October 29, 2012, 05:10:22 PM »
Monday Summary 

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +6  (R+1)   [O+4]
Reuters:   Obama +1  (R+2)   [O+1] 
UPI:       Obama +1  (-)     [O+2]   
ABC:       TIED      (O+1)   [R+1]
PPP:       Romney +1 (-)     [R+1]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (O+1)   [-]
Gallup:    Romney +5 (R+1)   [O+1]   

TIPP:      (no poll)   

Average*:   TIED (R+0.3)    [O+0.9]

*TIPP not incluced, last poll Obama+1
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Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344
« Reply #107 on: October 29, 2012, 05:31:59 PM »
Just noticed that the Reuters/Ipsos poll showing Obama+1 has Obama+10 in RV (51/41). Now that is a serious LV screen!
http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=12137
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #108 on: October 29, 2012, 05:51:36 PM »
Today's Ipsos poll is unusual. But there is a clear LV/RV thing going on. Nate Cohn wrote about it last week

http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108963/daily-breakdown-obama-struggling-likely-voters
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #109 on: October 30, 2012, 05:09:10 PM »
« Edited: October 30, 2012, 05:15:17 PM by Likely Voter »
Tuesday  Summary  

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +5  (R+1)   [O+3]
Reuters:   Obama +1  (-)   [-]  
UPI:       Obama +1  (-)     [O+1]  
Zogby:   Romney +1 (O+1) [new]
ABC:       Romney +1 (R+1)   [-]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (-)   [O+2]


TIPP:      (no poll)  
PPP:       (no poll)
Gallup:    (no poll)

Average: Obama 0.3  (R+0.2) [O+1.2]

(Average w/ last TIPP, PPP and Gallup polls: Romney 0.2)
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #110 on: October 31, 2012, 01:31:53 PM »
Rasmussen moved weighting from D+3 to D+1 in mid October. May have moved it back but havent seen that cited
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Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344
« Reply #111 on: October 31, 2012, 04:28:09 PM »
WednesdaySummary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:      Obama +4  (R+1) [-]
Reuters:   Obama +1  (-)   [O+2]  
UPI:       TIED      (R+1) [R+2]  
ABC:       TIED      (O+1) [O+1]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (-)   [O+2]
Zogby:     Romney +3 (R+2) [new]

TIPP:      (no poll)  
PPP:       (no poll)
Gallup:    (no poll)  

Average*:   TIED (R+0.3)    [-]

*does not include TIPP, PPP or Gallup
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Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #112 on: October 31, 2012, 06:38:19 PM »
So Sandy is giving Gallup a reset with a whole new set of data. With most polls showing a national tie-ish, will they be back to Romney+5 (their last poll), or will it suddenly revert to the match other pollsters? We will find out on Monday.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #113 on: November 01, 2012, 04:12:38 PM »
« Edited: November 01, 2012, 04:17:13 PM by Likely Voter »
Thursday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +5  (O+1)      [O+1]
Reuters:      Obama +1  (-)           [O+2]  
ABC:            Obama +1  (O+1)     [O+4]
UPI:             TIED           (-)           [R+2]  
Zogby:         TIED           (O+3)     [new]
Rasmussen: Romney +2 (-)          [O+1]

Average: Obama +0.7(O+0.7) [O+0.9]

TIPP:      (no poll)  
PPP:       (no poll)
Gallup:    (no poll)
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Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344
« Reply #114 on: November 02, 2012, 04:12:10 PM »
Friday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +4    (R+1)      [R+2]
Zogby:        Obama +2   (O+2)       [new]
PPP:            Obama +1   (O+2*)     [O+1]
UPI:            TIED             (-)             [R+1]  
Reuters:      TIED            (R+1)        [R+1]  
Rasmussen: TIED            (O+2)       [O+3]
ABC:           Romney +1  (R+2)       [-]

Average: Obama +0.9  (O+0.2) [O+0.2]

TIPP:      (no poll)  
Gallup:    (no poll)

*last poll pre-Sandy
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Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344
« Reply #115 on: November 03, 2012, 05:46:49 PM »
« Edited: November 03, 2012, 05:51:31 PM by Likely Voter »
Adding UPI to summary

Saturday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +3    (R+1)       [R+3]
PPP:            Obama +1   (-)             [O+1]
Reuters:      Obama +1   (O+1)        [R+1]  
UPI:             Obama +1   (O+1)        [R+1]  
Rasmussen: TIED            (-)             [O+4]


Average: Obama +1.2 (O+0.2) [-]

Zogby:    (no poll)
ABC:        (no poll)
TIPP:      (no poll)  
Gallup:    (no poll)
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 8,344
« Reply #116 on: November 04, 2012, 12:51:05 PM »
« Edited: November 04, 2012, 05:42:36 PM by Likely Voter »
There seems to be more coalescing between the polls. The difference between the best Obama and Best Romney polls was up to 11 points last Sunday. Tomorrow Gallup returns to the fold. Their last poll was Romney so maybe they will return us to more divergence. My bet is they will be closer to a tie +/-2.

Sunday Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +3    (-)                  [R+4]
PPP:            Obama +3   (O+2)             [O+4]
Reuters:      Obama +1   (-)                   [R+2]  
Rasmussen: TIED            (-)                   [O+3]
Zogby:         TIED            (R+2)             [new]
ABC:            TIED            (O+1)             [O+2]

Average: Obama +1.2 (-) [O +0.5]


UPI:        (no poll)
TIPP:      (no poll)  
Gallup:    (no poll)
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Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344
« Reply #117 on: November 04, 2012, 05:49:00 PM »
Sunday Summary [UPDATE]

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +3    (-)                  [R+4]
PPP:            Obama +3   (O+2)             [O+4]
Reuters:      Obama +1   (-)                   [R+2]
UPI:             Obama +1   (-)                   [R+2]
ABC:            Obama +1   (O+1)             [O+2]
Rasmussen: TIED            (-)                   [O+3]
Zogby:         TIED            (R+2)             [new]

Average: Obama +1.3 (O +0.1) [O +0.6]


TIPP:      (no poll)  
Gallup:    (no poll)
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Likely Voter
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,344
« Reply #118 on: November 05, 2012, 04:22:45 PM »
« Edited: November 05, 2012, 04:36:26 PM by Likely Voter »
Election Eve Summary

POLL: Lead (day change) [week change]

Rand:          Obama +4    (O+1)             [R+2]
ABC:            Obama +3   (O+2)             [O+3]
PPP:            Obama +2   (R+1)             [O+3]
Reuters:      Obama +2   (O+1)             [R+1]
UPI**:         Obama +1   (-)                  [-]
Rasmussen: Romney +1 (R+1)              [O+1]
Gallup:         Romney +1 (O+4*)           [O+4]
Zogby:         Romney +2 (R+2)             [new]

Average: Obama +1.0 (R +0.3) [O +1.1]


TIPP:      (no poll - final poll to be posted at 11pm PST)  


*last poll pre-Sandy
**final poll released Saturday
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