If you were Gary Johnson ...

[Reluctant Republican]

What would be a success for him? Realistically anything over 1% is great for the LP. But given the unique circumstances of this year that would be something of a disappointment. Here's how I see it going:

Under 1%: Utter embarrassment. The party should have nominated Perry.

2-3%: Respectable, if slightly disappointing considering all the press and hype the ticket had in its early days.

4%: Pretty decent. It's at this level where I think Johnson will have quelled a lot of the doubters in the party and could run again in 2020 with little resistance (not that I believe he will.)

5%: Big victory lap for the LP, considering it gets them federal funds, which they'd probably take if push came to shove. A huge victory that the party would probably celebrate for decades, or until they do better(probably the former honestly). Also likely makes further former GOP office holders more tempted to jump ship and run for the party later.

6+%: the LP is Ecstatic. Johnson for all his flaws will be remembered as the right messenger for the time to capitalize on the weakness of the Republicans.

I'm hoping Johnson gets at least 5%. I give the odds maybe 50-50 of that happening. According to RCP he's at 5.9 now, but third parties do tend to collapse.

Biased observer here, but if I was a democrat in a safe state I'd probably vote for Johnson to try and get the LP to that 5% of quasi respectability and federal funds. I think it's likely that the party will continue to appeal more to the right and its future nominees are more likely to come from the GOP, meaning a stronger Libertarian party helps to weaken the Republicans. Even if only mildly.