I get that liberals don't like Tillis, but he's still much more likely to win, especially with the absolute s**t quality candidates up against him. Erica Smith is pretty hard left (and no, please don't compare Stacey Abrams to her because they are completely different) and Cal Cunningham is just...bad. I don't like Tillis very much, but Trump will carry NC and this seat is Tilt R, closer to Lean R than Tilt D.
Candidate quality is mostly irrelevant. NC-Senate will go to whichever party wins NC-Pres.