A reasonable theory, but I tend to disagree; I think we're in for at least a temporary reversion to mean in 2022 after the high turnout of the Trump years. The other big factor for me is that I think Biden, at least so far, has provoked relatively low levels of Republican outrage, so I think there's a real chance that Republicans may not have the levels of heightened turnout that the out-party has generally had in recent mid-terms.
Of course, there's still a long time until 2022, and legislation, Supreme Court cases, and various controversies could stoke turnout on both sides. I also agree with point 3, inasmuch as I think extreme partisanship will prevent turnout from slipping back to 2014 levels.
LOL. A majority of Republicans literally believe the Biden presidency is a product of massive voter fraud. So please, stop it.
Centrist Democrats, on the other hand, don't recognize an enemy when he punches them in the face and promises to murder their children. So nothing substantive will be accomplished with respect to safeguarding democracy, preventing voter suppression, curtailing gerrymandering, mitigating climate change, approving DC statehood, unpacking the SC, etc. Grassroots Democrats will justifiably conclude that the national party is owned by the same corporate interests as the GOP, and completely unwilling/unable to institute meaningful change. So they'll sit on their hands in 2022, and the Congressional caucus will be wiped out.
