ROC President and Legislative elections Jan 11 2020

[urutzizu]

A breakdown by age of the Shih Hsin University poll for Guo vs Ko vs Lai is intresting

           KMT Guo     Ko      DPP Lai
Total       32.1      25.8        23.0
20-29      18         41           22
30-39      32         35           19
40-49      35         28           15
50-59      38         22           28
60-69      40         13           25
70+         28          9           31

Ko very strong with the young.  Guo is competitive with the young (unlike Han) but very strong for middle age to 60s.  Lai starts to be competitive in the 50+ range with Ko being ultra weak once the age is above 60.

Taiwans age-political alignment correlation is really quite unique with the liberal nationalist DPP being very unpopular with the middle age group and quite popular with both the very young and the very old, while the conservative KMT finds most of its support among the middle Age group.
This is completely different to comparable countries in east asia like Korea where the older you get the more conservative the population group becomes, or in Japan where, as you once showed, the opposite is true.

What is the reason for Taiwan being so different? Is it because of the 40-60 Year olds growing up during the economic boom and martial law under chiang-kuo and therefore having a more positive view of the KMT, while Younger generations grew up under Chen and Lee-teng hui and with the missile strait crisis, and the 70+ maybe still witnessed the 228 Incident and therefore being more pro-DPP?   

(Also the Matsu Islands have a huge statue of Mazu and when i visited Nangan i think they said something about Mazu being seen as the protector of the Islands from the PRC and the reason why they were not invaded, so i expect guo to do very well there)

[urutzizu]

Do you think that what is happening in Hong Kong right now could affect the KMTs chances of winning?

[urutzizu]

Interactive results Map that I liked: https://international.thenewslens.com/interactive/126882

Small Green Losses in Southern Taiwan made up by increases in the north. Most surprising for me was perhaps DPP Tsai increasing in Jinmen and Matsu. Those Islands were dependent on Mainland Tourism, which Regime has massively restricted. I visited in late 2018 (before the travel restrictions became even more strict last year) and remember Bars, Hotels, Tours very empty except for Taiwan proper and Western Tourists. The Economic punishment from the Mainland hit hardest there, and it backfired. Which is indicative of the general election results. Every time they try to frighten the Taiwanese into voting KMT (1996 Straits Missile tests; Zhu Rongji 2000, Tzuyu 2016; sanctions+HK 2020) it fails. Even Han was running from reunification and attacking Tsai for allegedly selling out to China. KMT might actually take this, and think that they have no electoral future with the young if they dont change, and drop any pretense of Reunification completely. China is on the precipice of losing Taiwan to the US.

I am not a fan of the whole "the central government is playing 4D chess" theory on Weibo and think that the current situation (both in regards to HK and Taiwan) is a legit giant f***-up. Not being able to implement Article 23 for HK and CSSTA for Taiwan was the point of no return and it has been downhills from there.