Prediction: Young voters will swing hard right the next few cycles (user search)
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  Prediction: Young voters will swing hard right the next few cycles (search mode)
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Author Topic: Prediction: Young voters will swing hard right the next few cycles  (Read 1433 times)
GALeftist
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« on: July 25, 2023, 01:42:47 PM »

With all due respect, seems like lazy analysis based mostly on anecdotes. Gen Z voters voted for Biden by 20 points – basically the same as millennials. What's more, it appears they moved somewhat left in 2022 – see this, this, and this. Now, of course they will move right over time, but Gen Z will also be aging into the electorate until 2030. (Gen alpha imo is just way too young for us to know anything about their voting habits yet). Point is, all the data right now seem to indicate that Gen Z is a lot like millennials in terms of their politics, which indicates that they will in all likelihood be left of where you'd expect for quite a while. That could be an incomplete picture, I'm way more confident saying millennials will be durably liberal than I am saying the same about zoomers, but it's what I'd guess.

For what it's worth, you can come up with counterexamples for all these anecdotes. For example, while social media might push men right (although I'm not sure this is uniformly or even mostly the case, tbh), it definitely pushes women left, to the extent that it's kind of a joke among zoomers that any straight man left of Mussolini has to put "liberal" on their Tinder bio if they want any matches. Although college polarization is increasing, zoomers are also going to be the most college educated generation so far. Although zoomers (mostly) don't have formative memories of Bush being blamed for the Iraq War and the 2008 crash, they mostly do have formative memories of a generally popular Obama administration followed by a generally unpopular Trump administration and its COVID crisis, with the associated lockdown and recession. Now, I could be wrong about some or all of this. My point is just that these observations are not rigorous enough to draw any meaningful conclusions yet.
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