Hard to know what the ~national environment~ looks like in 2022, but, people are underestimating the D lean in Nevada and reading too much into weird blippy trends.
Biden still won Nevada pretty handily. He netted 164K votes over Hillary. Trump only beat his 2016 total by 157K - this in a state that was almost as demographically favorable to him in 2020 as you could ask for.
People are unskewing too much by comparing this shift to the national average. So what if NV was two points to the right of the NPV in 2020? The Senate+Gov races were four points to the right of the national house vote in 2018, and NV didn't come close to flipping this year. Besides, it's a pretty big ask to get NPV to below two for Dems, even in a midterm year. It's not 2014 anymore.
Without any knowledge of the national environment or opponent (Amodei seems like the best pick for Rs), I'd still put CCM over 80% likely to win this race. Honestly, probably closer to 90% than 80.
Why won't the NPV go below 2 for dems, the GOP won the house vote by 7% in 2010 and nearly 6% in 2014, that is what happens in midterms, why won't Republicans win the house vote by 6-7% in 2022, there is no reason to believe they won't.
Biden's coalition looks very different than Obama's, though, plus we've already seen very high midterm turnout in 2018.
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