Nate was among the most bullish forecasters on Trump.
The problem is he was still wrong. It doesn't matter that he was less wrong than others who were further out - the problem is that his model was significantly wrong.
Now, there's lots of reasons for it (mostly due to GIGO effects involving bad polls), but given that his model failed last time around, would behoove Silver to correct those problems so that the next time around, his prediction would be more accurate.
His model had Clinton at 71% on Election Day and in the 60's a few days earlier. A 30% chance (Trump's in 2016) is nothing to sneer at; it's the chance of a .300 hitter in baseball getting a hit in a particular at-bat.
Yep, he was still wrong though.
(And it should be remembered that even 10% outcomes happen sometimes. Ever had someone ask you to pick a number from 1 to 10, and you got it right?)
Problem is that his model is demonstrating significant evidence of systematic bias. If you're running a machine that consistently veers one way, and only one way, that means that you've got a problem with the protocol that you are using. Until you go under the hood and fix the protocol, you will still veer to the same direction.
His own statement seems to indicate this is a 55-45 Biden election (PA is the only route for Biden), so if Biden is up in PA, then that's the only path for him. Trump has similar issues with Ohio + Florida.
You could even conclude that despite being down in the battlegrounds, that Trump has an advantage due to having multiple paths wrt wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Minnesota.
Everything about this is wrong. Just because Clinton was the favorite doesn't mean he was wrong. It means that things Silver expected to happen about 30% of the time happened. Also, where's your evidence that his model consistently overestimates Democrats?
Has Trump ever even been in striking distance in Minnesota? I can't find a poll that has him close, and most polls have Biden's lead in the double digits. Frankly, it seems increasingly clear that Wisconsin and Michigan are gone for Trump too. So, in actuality, it seems like your logic is bullish for Biden. Trump's most plausible victory scenario is 2016 - MI and WI, whereas Biden might not even need PA (which he's favored in anyway) because he's also favored in states like NC, GA, FL, and AZ and close to winning states like OH and TX.
