2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Kansas

[GALeftist]

To be honest I'd be less surprised to see KS-03 take in Lawrence than to see a 4-0 map, even one like lfromnj's which imo is the most plausible option. For one thing, Kansas Republicans wouldn't have a lot of wiggle room for a 4-0 map since they'd need to override Kelly's veto. Is it really possible that no incumbents would pitch a fit at taking in all this new territory enough to jeopardize a veto override in an already famously unstable supermajority? There's obviously also major risk for such a map in the Kansas Supreme Court since it's so liberal. Packing Lawrence into KS-03 could avoid those issues altogether and shore up KS-02, which could plausibly get hairy at some point over the next decade. Still think least change is most likely, though.

[GALeftist]

What is the point of splitting Wyandotte and Johnson if you're just going to make the Johnson district lean/likely D anyway? These are so hideous and for what

[GALeftist]

On the second map looks like KS-3 is about Biden+4.5 or so, hard to tell the lines in Wyandotte.

Did they really split Lawrence on the first map?  Wtf, why?

The guy who proposed it was supposed to present a gerrymander, but missed the memo and had to use one he had left over from 2011 instead

[GALeftist]

It appears map #2 is the most serious proposal as it comes from the Republican chair. Map #1 is as close as possible to the plan passed by the House in 2012 and appears to be submitted for informational purposes more than anything else. Plans 3&4 are the Democratic and League of Women Voters plans which stand no chance in a Republican controlled committee.

What does Plan #2 do? Split Wyandotte?

Yes. Very stupid. Probably fertile ground for a lawsuit for not much partisan gain, and that's assuming they manage to override; they have, what, two votes to spare?

[GALeftist]

Senate appears to have the votes to sustainan  veto, the Ad Astra 2 plan passed 26-9. Party line vote (2 Ds 3 Rs absent) with the exception of GOP Senator Dennis Pyle.

Actually it's 3 Ds 2 Rs absent. Anyway the GOP needs 27 votes to override in the State Senate I believe which they should have as long as both absent GOP senators (Jeff Longbine, R-Emporia and Gene Suellentrop, R-Wichita) don't oppose the map, which seems unlikely. However, if Republicans in the State House are similarly disunited, they will not be able to override Kelly's likely veto; if they lose 3 votes from their 86 person caucus, they will be unable to override, and one senator corresponds to about three representatives.

[GALeftist]

What would the process be looking like if Rs held the governorship in 2018?

Given that they appear to have veto-proof support for a mild gerrymander, an R trifecta map would presumably have all 4 districts being at least Trump+5 in 2020, and quite possibly a full blown Wyandotte to KS-01 with the western rurals configuration.

I wouldn't be so certain about the veto-proof bit, but otherwise yeah, you're probably right. However Kansas does have a constitutional provision against splitting municipalities for partisan gain I believe which somewhat limits what they could have done. I think it's why they didn't split Johnson

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1487158742248562691

Hopium

[GALeftist]

I had read that the KSGOP would try to override today, but haven't heard anything. Maryland was pretty quick; why the holdup?

[GALeftist]

What a farce. I'd be so ashamed if this was my party.

[GALeftist]

To the courts!

[GALeftist]

Surprised they cleared the hurdle.

Yeah at first it seemed confusing to have the 1st take in Lawrence but it really makes sense on second go. Taking in Wyandotte means you have to take in 250k non rural areas if you include Leavenworth county. Lawrence is a much smaller 90k. Taking in 250k non rural areas means you to persuade like 11 or 12 state reps in Western Kansas. Taking in Lawrence just means 3 or 4 have to be done. Well crafted gerrymander considering the various parochial interests of Kansas representatives. Likely all for naught in the end.

What would be the grounds for the court to toss the Pubmander?

Similar to North Carolina, Kansas has provisions establishing equal protection, freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, etc. which if you strech you could see how that would justify striking down a partisan gerrymander.

[GALeftist]

Surprised they cleared the hurdle.

Yeah at first it seemed confusing to have the 1st take in Lawrence but it really makes sense on second go. Taking in Wyandotte means you have to take in 250k non rural areas if you include Leavenworth county. Lawrence is a much smaller 90k. Taking in 250k non rural areas means you to persuade like 11 or 12 state reps in Western Kansas. Taking in Lawrence just means 3 or 4 have to be done. Well crafted gerrymander considering the various parochial interests of Kansas representatives. Likely all for naught in the end.

What would be the grounds for the court to toss the Pubmander?

Similar to North Carolina, Kansas has provisions establishing equal protection, freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, etc. which if you strech you could see how that would justify striking down a partisan gerrymander.

Thanks. And why does one assume the KS high court is as activist and partisan as the NC high court?

I just googled it and it seems that NYS also has an equal protection clause. How interesting.

https://law.justia.com/constitution/new-york/article-i/section-11/

The takeaway from this is that state high courts are going hard partisan (or making it more obvious) and damaging their reputations. And that is a more worrisome development than the most outrageous of gerrymanders. When courts go down the drain, we don't have much left.

I somewhat agree that the surging partisanship of state courts is a bad development (although this issue obviously pales in comparison to what's currently happening in the Supreme Court), but be that as it may, I have a hard time seeing the KSSC letting this stand.

[GALeftist]

The merits of any lawsuit escape me and I have no idea what make weight arguments the court might use to move towards proportionality

https://twitter.com/aclukansas/status/1493255800667750405

As I suspected, the lawsuit will be based on generic language in the Kansas Constitution guaranteeing equal political power, freedom of speech, and freedom of assembly. Like it or not this is probably the new normal. To be fair, the Maryland lawsuit from the Republicans is basically equally shaky, although it's perhaps a little better since Maryland has a free elections clause and a compactness requirement which to my knowledge Kansas does not. Also, I doubt the court would mandate proportionality; a proportional map would be 2-2, not 3-1.

[GALeftist]

Therapist: Don't worry, proportional Kansas isn't real. It can't hurt you.

Proportional Kansas:

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/sfstatejournal/status/1512049090527387651

Ad Astra likely dead.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/OriondeNevers/status/1518606567456878592?s=20&t=IBTt7A4_...

Brownback judge lol. Do Republicans bother with an appeal?

[GALeftist]

Republicans are appealing to the Kansas Supreme Court. I expect that the chances they prevail are virtually nil.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/AmeetTheIndian/status/1526237999201144832?cxt=HHwWgMCykffXpK...

Interesting?

This seems unsurprising to me? I thought there's just like one dude in the state senate who doesn't like the new state legislative lines; other than that, it seems like they were pretty fair, they were signed by Kelly, so I was expecting the KSSC to OK those.

[GALeftist]

Wow, a shocking setback.