2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: New Jersey

[GALeftist]

Might there be merit to going for a 10-2/9-2-1 by cutting Malinowski but giving Van Drew a Biden district, at least? It's fairly easy to make a good sink in the Northwest which shores up everyone else in the north, but a South Jersey sink is not as effective because it is going to have Atlantic City. The obvious answer, it seems to me, is to crack rather than pack, but I confess I don't know much about New Jersey redistricting, so it might be infeasible.

[GALeftist]

If Dems had any brains, Gottheimer is the North Jersey incumbent they should dump. He's been nothing but trouble for the party.

The positioning of his district makes that harder to do.

It would be very easy to put Wyckoff, Gottheimer’s hometown in a red district by combining it with Sussex, Warren, western Passaic, etc. Whether he’d just carpetbag to a safer district is a different question.

What I hope will happen is they include his home in a Kean sink to make all the other North Jersey seats Titanium D, and then he carpetbags and loses his primary to an actual Democrat, but unfortunately this has a very small chance of coming to pass.

[GALeftist]

An Illinois level gerrymander in Texas would've added another few seats. IL Dems were ok with Biden +10 seats, while TX GOP wanted 20+. FL was unquestionably soft (even having Dem friendly decisions in some parts of the state) even within the bounds of the state rules.
How many states did Democrats throw the GOP the bone like the GOP threw Dems bones like in IN, FL, MO? 0!

I don't believe the establish commission in all 50 states support when it's juxtaposed against cheering for Democratic gerrymanders and against anger when commissions don't take favorable routes for Democrats. I believe Torie when he says it, but until other red avs start calling the NY Supreme Court to strike down the recent gerrymander, as GOP friendly courts have done in OH, I'm going to believe that they're just ok with gerrymandering when it's done by Democrats.

The reason the TXGOP wanted such an aggressive gerrymander is that a number of their districts are trending left at lightning speed. Anyways this is all very dumb because even with all the breaks Democrats caught the median House seat is just going to be very close to the NPV, i.e. the map will be fair. If the Democrats had been less aggressive, well, you do the math; the map would be right leaning.

[GALeftist]

Once you have crazy maps in place, there isn't much an off ramp in place. IL and NY will have to maintain the same extremity of gerrymander because the state party and the representatives won't willingly lose 4 seats in each state. Those representatives won't vote for national legislation that dooms them. House leadership might not push legislation that does that. Now we're stuck in a forever gerrymandered reality.

Yeah. I can't believe the Democrats have caused us to fall from grace in this regard. In a world in which they had not gerrymandered and Republicans had a permanent majority, we had a very clear off ramp and legislation banning partisan gerrymandering was very likely to pass.

Oh, wait.