50/50
This is based on the fact that this election is really unprecedented and I really see people going into that booth, especially in states like OH, VA, and CO and just not being able to pull the lever for Obama feeling it is too damn risky. If Obama pulls ahead consistently by 12-15% in the polls right before the election, I'll raise his chances, but until then I'm not just willing to count out the comeback kid against the guy who can't finish off anyone.
I thought this was funny for some reason.