My 2008 prediction....

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't have a prediction for 2008, but how about this one:

In 2016, the Dem nominee will be Stephanie Herseth.


BTW, I think McCain at 68 will probably be too old to run in 2008, especially considering his previous health problems.  Also, I'm surprised no one has mentioned Ed Rendell as a Dem candidate.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

2012

Dole/Owens (R) - 56%, 326 EVs
Clinton/Warner (D) - 43% 212 EVs

Elizabeth Dole will be 76 in 2012!  It strikes me that most people who are projecting the race into 2012 are picking candidates who are influential NOW, not who will be influential in eight years.

Consider this: Eight years ago, it would not have been a stretch to imagine John Kerry as the Dem nominee.  But his chief opponents were Edwards, Dean, and Clark.  Who could have guessed in 1996 that any of those three would be contenders in 2004?   Most of the 2012 candidates will be people who do not currently have national recognition.

So maybe a more interesting question is: Who will be a contender for a major party nomination in 2012 who is NOT currently a Governor or Senator?

My guesses on the Dem side:
Emanual (IL)
Herseth (SD)
Spitzer (NY)

Not sure about GOP.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

So maybe a more interesting question is: Who will be a contender for a major party nomination in 2012 who is NOT currently a Governor or Senator?

My guesses on the Dem side:
Emanual (IL)
Herseth (SD)
Spitzer (NY)

Not sure about GOP.

One more Dem I forgot:
O'Malley (MD)...then in the middle of his second term as Gov!