Hear me out.
Lets say Bush gets 54% on November 2nd. He wins comfortably. But does he still lose these two states narrowly?
I expect him to carry Washington, Michigan, Oregon, etc. easily. But Bush has not run an ad in these two states (except for some Las Vegas spillovers in desert California). Does this keep him from victory in these two states.
My final prediction mpa has Bush winning Illinois but now that I have thought it through I might give that state back to Kerry.
I guess it depends on what Nader gets. If Kerry looks truly hopeless for some reason, Nader might get 5 or 6% in California, which could flip the state to Bush. But Kerry would still win in a 2-way race.
