GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

In the 538 model, if Warnock and Fetterman both win, Dems are 95% favorites to hold the Senate, and 65% likely to win at least 52 seats. Dems even become narrow favorites to hold the House.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's always Republicans who aren't running for reelection or who don't hold office who are free to "speak their minds", since they don't have to worry about Republican voters or about Trump. That's true between this man and Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, Chris Christie, to give a few other examples.

But yes, it's hard for me to see Walker's campaign recovering from this. I believe Warnock is going to win reelection at this point; it's just a matter of if he wins outright or if he wins in the runoff.

How is Liz Cheney an example of this?  She was speaking up on Trump while she was still House Conference Chair.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Sorry for the double post, but God, this is heartbreaking.

I was also about to post the exact same thing.

It sounds like his son was catfished for months by a spambot.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Walker needs to drop out immediately.
Continuing to have to read about this campaign is just making me too sad.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Walker will still get votes from the Christian Right because of his policies, not his actions

This is why I think Walker will still get ~45% or so of the vote in Georgia at the end. This is not a Todd Akin situation, where he would lose by double digits - a scenario that might have happened 20 or 30 years ago, but is not possible now, due to increased polarization. But I think that this move on the part of evangelicals could be one of the reasons why religiosity in the United States is declining, as many younger people view them as hypocrites who don't actually live up to their moral standards.

Todd Akin would win if the identical situation happened today, though. That kind of comment isn't damaging to Republicans anymore.

It seemed pretty damaging to Yesli Vega.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1598139129673678849

Should have cast a blank or a write-in. Not voting is just a failure of one's civic duty and especially inexcusable of a public official.

I’m pretty sure you can’t write-in a candidate in a run-off.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Duncan voted

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1598337877473124354?s=20&t=cB10Gcw...

TRANSLATION: He voted for Warnock, but doesn't want the Republican grassroot to burndown his house.

From the actual clip of the CNN interview I saw, it sounded like he was saying he did vote but cast a blank ballot.