AZ, FL - ABC/WaPo: Trump +1%, Trump +4%

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

579 as a sample size for Arizona and 613 for Florida?!

Throw this in the garbage disposal.

For a statewide live interviewer poll, those sample sizes seem completely standard and fine to me.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Odd, throw them in the average. Other than the WI poll, these ABC/Washington Post polls have been all over the place.

The big concern for me is that the average in Florida is so close right now.  There are many, many polls showing an essentially even race there at the same time Biden leads by 7-8 points nationally.  Why had this state trended so dramatically right in the past couple years?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Since we like to pick on 538, I'd like to point out that, even though the state probabilities for AZ and FL have (understandably) dipped, their topline probability is completely unchanged as a result of this poll - still 77-23 Biden.

I get the opposite impression, as most people on here seem to have a more favorable opinion of 538 than they do of RCP-even though both websites have very similar poll averages, and very reasonable predictions for the presidential election, as things stand now.

I think a lot of people think highly of their poll aggregation efforts and much less highly of the non-polling aspects of their model.

FWIW, the fact that Biden's chance of winning in the model has been so stable (he's been at 76 or 77 for the last 9 days straight) does suggest the race is tightening very slightly.  If his polling lead were to stay exactly where it is, his winning probability should increase as the election gets closer.