The election is basically over, isnt it? (user search)
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  The election is basically over, isnt it? (search mode)
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Author Topic: The election is basically over, isnt it?  (Read 6688 times)
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,278


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49
« on: June 04, 2020, 01:10:21 PM »
I already started this exact thread two months ago when it was obvious that Trump’s coronavirus response was going to be a disaster.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=367546.0
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Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,278


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49
« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2020, 01:15:59 PM »
Quote from: SaneDemocrat on July 04, 2020, 12:34:15 PM
Quote from: 334 Freiwal on July 01, 2020, 11:46:59 AM
If this were a baseball season, Biden now has a 10-game lead. Can you blow a 10-game lead between July and October? Yes. Is it likely to happen? No.

Biden is up 24-3 mid second quarter in football. Hard but not impossible.

I ran this scenario (down 21 points receiving the ball midway through the 2nd quarter) into the Pro Football Reference win probability calculator.  

The chance of the trailing team winning here is about 3%.

That seems fair to me.
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