A double standard for polls with incumbents below 50 (GOP House vs Dem Senate?) (user search)
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  A double standard for polls with incumbents below 50 (GOP House vs Dem Senate?) (search mode)
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Author Topic: A double standard for polls with incumbents below 50 (GOP House vs Dem Senate?)  (Read 343 times)
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
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« on: October 03, 2018, 09:40:40 PM »

The obvious answer is Dem hackery.

But there's also the fact that most of the time a Senate challenger is going to have far higher name recognition than a House challenger does because the races are much higher profile.

If it is just an issue of name recognition, then isn't it even worse for a Senate incumbent to be below 50? That would suggest that a House incumbent that is below 50 may be able to pick up some support simply by running some ads and increasing name recognition.

I think the point was that the challenger tends to have much lower name recognition in House races than Senate races, and thus more room to grow.

But I don't really think the 50% threshold is particularly magical in either case.  The margin is much, much more important.
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