2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1042790579900440577?s=19

So do we know if Malinowski himself responded to this poll or the NYT/Siena one?
That could at least explain 0.2% of the difference.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Dems fall to 76.3% on 538 to take back the House, lowest since right after Labor Day. I'd say it was the Kavanaugh bump and skittish GOPers during the McCain mess coming back home. Expect more Dem collapse in the coming weeks.

From what I can tell, this is the result of about a 0.5% gain for the GOP in the generic ballot over the last week (it's not D+8.4%, translating into an expected GCB on election day of D+8.1% in the model, compared to D+9%/D+8.6% about a week ago).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

First, it seems like even those people suddenly proclaiming absolutely doom for the Democrats in November are conveniently just focusing on the Senate and ignoring the House and Governorships.  

So much is made of a few polls where Heitkamp is behind, and I would acknowledge there seems to be some movement there.  But that's one race in one tiny, unrepresentative state!

The same posts ignore 10+ House GOP incumbents that now appear to be behind in the polls by 8-12 points.  Or the fact that Andrew Gillum has led every poll of the biggest governor's race in the country since he won the primary.  Or the fact that Democrats are running away in Governors' races that were previous thought toss-ups like MI, CO, CT, and MN.  And does anyone think the Kavanaugh hearings are going to help Republicans defend their eight close congressional races in California??

North Dakota is not representative of the US.  Across the true scope of the nation, Democrats are still dominating.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

No way Republicans losing White College Graduate Women by 62-35. Hilarious from WaPo!

It's worth noting that this poll polls almost no southern districts. White college graduate women outside the south are very dem

I could 18 districts in Southern (i.e. former Confederate) states, or 29%.  Seems about right to me me.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map_race_changes.html

Can a small polling error break a thousand hearts next month?

Why in the world would they change PA-07 from Lean Dem to Toss-up?  Was this a typo?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

IL-12 poll from Global Strategy Group/End Citizens United (10.03-10.07.2018): Bost leads by 1%.

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1050124245324484609

Basically identical to the NYT/Siena poll from a month ago.  I would have expected better from what is essentially a D internal.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

TBH, I can see the House looking like it did in 2007 (with Republicans being just over 200) and the Senate being 47-53 because Hawley and Berg won and all other incumbents won. The would be the same margin as 2011 was.

so, I think 3 dozen house seats and -2 is what will happen.
If Sinema and Rosen pull it off, we will have an Even Senate and probably a house similar to what we have now but backwards. That's about 45 seats.

2006 isn't really the best example. Democrats gained a slim majority in the Senate, which, coincidentally, is the most likely outcome for Democrats -if- they were able to win the Senate this cycle.

Better example might be like 1982 - huge House popular vote margin for Democrats but doesn't flip the Senate, despite coming really close in a handful of races.

2006 does seem like the best example, because even if the Dems LOSE two Senate seats this cycle, they will be winning the same total number of Senate seats (and in most cases, the exact same seats) as they won in 2006 (ignoring the special elections).

In the Senate, 2012 was a wave in favor of the Democrats of historic proportions, winning seats on top of the 2006 wave that few thought possible.  Suggesting that Democrats this year should only be happy if they somehow improve upon even that wave is silly.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1051939004512460801

Folks, we have a winner for worst poll of the cycle. UMontana can breathe a huge sigh of relief, because their Tester+24 polls looks like the pinnacle of survey analysis by comparison.

This poll got entered in the 538 database, and immediately dropped Schrader's win % from 99.8% to 84%.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Rod Blum is always one of the most underestimated incumbents and declared DOA every two years. He’s not going to survive a D wave, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he won in a better than expected night for Republicans.

Blum has only run for reelection once before.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

ME-01/ME-02 (Pan Atlantic Research):

ME-01:
Chellie Pingree (D-inc) 53
Mark Holbrook (R) 29

ME-02:
Bruce Poliquin (R-inc) 37
Jared Golden (D) 37
Tiffany Bond (I) 6
Will Hoar (I) 3

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Pan_Atlantic_Research_Maine.pdf

Has anyone polled 2nd choices in ME-02?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

ME-01/ME-02 (Pan Atlantic Research):

ME-01:
Chellie Pingree (D-inc) 53
Mark Holbrook (R) 29

ME-02:
Bruce Poliquin (R-inc) 37
Jared Golden (D) 37
Tiffany Bond (I) 6
Will Hoar (I) 3

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Pan_Atlantic_Research_Maine.pdf

Has anyone polled 2nd choices in ME-02?

They did poll them here, but it was a sample of 23 in ME-01 and sample of 25 in ME-02, so I wouldn't put any weight into them at all.

Thanks!  It is interesting that 71% of third party voters in the 2nd district had no second choice, but only 26% of third party voters in the 1st district said this.  That's a meaningful difference even with such a small sample size.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Not to sound panicky again, but the 538 GCB average has been falling sharply in the past couple days. Even if it doesn't fall further, winning by 8 and winning by 8.5 are not equivalent.

And all of this has caused 538's median projection of House seats to plummet from D+39 to D+38.