2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

These NY-24 and CA-50 polls are pretty disappointing. Obvious the Dems don't need to win these seats for a majority, and if either falls they are looking at a 50-60 seat gain nationally.  But the margins should be closer in a D+7 or D+8 national environment.  I can see the argument for why Katko might fade a bit, but not Hunter.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If never thought MO-2 was realistically competitive, so that poll isn't at all surprising to me.

But I did think the electorate in NY-24 would be a but more elastic.  And that Hunter would lose more support this week, even if it didn't immediately go to the challenger.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

NY-22: Siena, Aug. 20-26, 499 likely voters

Anthony Brindisi (D): 46
Claudia Tenney (R, inc): 44

It is Sienna, so it does have a pro-incumbency bias, but these are still great numbers, and the undecideds in the poll look like they will lean D.

How does a polling firm have a pro-incumbent bias?  Like, what sort of sampling or weighting procedure would produce this?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

NY-22: Siena, Aug. 20-26, 499 likely voters

Anthony Brindisi (D): 46
Claudia Tenney (R, inc): 44

It is Sienna, so it does have a pro-incumbency bias, but these are still great numbers, and the undecideds in the poll look like they will lean D.

How does a polling firm have a pro-incumbent bias?  Like, what sort of sampling or weighting procedure would produce this?

they tend to give incumbents a better sample. For instance, both this poll and the other NY poll have had a GOP bias of around 3-4 in registration, but when they do D districts, they have a 3-4 D bias.

But why would they do this?  Like, why would you use a different sampling or weighting procedure for races with a Democrat versus Republican incumbent?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I feel like these polls are going to need their own megathread.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If the numbers in tonight's sample in the NYT poll of TX-23 hold up, there's no way the Dems keep the Senate in 2030.