It's on... Tester to Challenges Burns

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

just like yall were going to win in nc and sc last year.

yawn.

Two totally different races.  Not even comparable.

yawn...

yes the races in the carolinas were open seats and much easier than going against an incumbent.

Actually, in the past decade, the Democrats have had much more success in defeating Republican incumbents than they have in defending open seats.   

For instance,

- In 1994, the Dems lost only two incumbents (and one was partial-term) but lost all nine open seat races, six of which were GOP pick-ups.

- In 2000, the Dems defeated five Republican incumbents, but only picked-up one open seat.  (The GOP defeated one Dem incumbent and pick-ed up one open seat).

- In 2004, the Dems lost only one incumbent, but lost in all five Dem-held open seats in the South.

The trend looks like it may continue in 2006....best Democratic opportunities are against incumbents in PA, MT, and maybe RI, while the best GOP opportunity is the open seat in MN, and possibly MD.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Um no.

1) MN
2) FL
3) WA
4) NJ
5) NE
6) MD
7) ND

I think you basically agree with me, despite your puzzling denial; Minnesota is the most vulnerable Democratic seat.

Notice after that I said possibly Maryland; assuming a Steele v. Mfume race.

But if Steele runs, then Maryland ranks higher than a WA race w/o Rossi.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I will say that Democrats are not incorrect to say MT is their #1 or #2 pickup opportunity.

Top 3 pickup opportunities are PA, RI, and MT. There are 3 others where I think we have a reasonable chance as well.

Wish we could get a good candidate to challenge DeWine, but it doesn't appear likely.

Look at the numbers, you guys have absolutely no chance (ok, you have a long shot) at picking up Rhode Island.

I don't think the Dems have a great chance at winning head-to-head against Chafee, but some analysts believe he is very vulnerable to a primary challenge.  Stuart Rothenberg has repeatedly claimed Chafee is an underdog to Laffey.  I think this significantly overstates it, but I'll hold off on a predicition until I at least see a couple polls.  As I've mentioned before, only 16% of RI voters identify as Republicans, so this is a very small and insular electorate.