The Results Thread

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I love that 3-way battleground graphic.
Strange that Conservatives are +0 and Lib Dems +3 nationally in the exit poll, but the battleground projects a bunch on Lib Dem seats falling to Tories and no the other way around.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why do all the safe Labour seats seem to report first?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why is this such a bad result for Labour?  The 1992 election was hailed as a big win for Conservatives, and they had their majority cut much closer than Blair is going to get.  Blair is going to have a biggest majority than Thatcher even in 1987.  Are we really so cynical that every election is just about beating expectations? 

The Labor majority was unsustainably high in 1997 and 2001...they won all sorts of seats that they had no business ever winning.  This election is like the US House elections in 1996 and 1998...the Democrats gain seats they shouldn't have lost in the first place, but the real story is the Republicans digging into long-term control.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Bethnal Green and Bow: Galloway wins

36% Respect, 34% Labour

Any Republican who is freaking out at the prospect of Bernie Sanders getting elected to Senate needs to look at this result...it could be much worse.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

When do Northern Ireland results come in?

The last, and largely Tory.

I thought Northern Ireland had four completely different parties that won all the seats.  No Labour, Tory, or LibDem.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I believe there are 50 seats left to call excluding Northern Ireland.  Tories must win 28 to reach 200.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

There 18 Irish seats 4 Cornish seats  that the Tories have no chance at, leaving 39 for them to contest, of which they would need to win 24 to get a double century.  I don't see the Cons doing that well .

The Tories could pick up the seat in Devon West.  I'm not sure if that is considered Cornish or not.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

There 18 Irish seats 4 Cornish seats  that the Tories have no chance at, leaving 39 for them to contest, of which they would need to win 24 to get a double century.  I don't see the Cons doing that well .

The Tories could pick up the seat in Devon West.  I'm not sure if that is considered Cornish or not.

Looks like they DID pick up Devon West right as I was posting.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The question that I have is how solid Labour is going to be.  It might have a majority of 355, but there will no doublt be vacancies over the next few years.  Will Tony Blair be in a John Major situation?

Will Labour fragment?

Blair still has a bigger margin than Thatcher did in 1979 or 1987.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Actually, Earnest was giving the Tories Ludlow...the three toss-ups were Labor leads of 9%, 10%, and 13% last time around...so not really toss-ups, just possibilities.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Sorry, IKHH means nothing to me. ?

I don't think it's really a party...it's basically an independent who ran advocating hospital reform I think.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Actually, Ernest was giving the Tories Ludlow...the three toss-ups were Labor leads of 9%, 10%, and 13% last time around...so not really toss-ups, just possibilities.

Given the amount of Labour/Tory swing in nearby seats for all three of those tossups, I stand by my call of them as tossups.

Well you were right about Croydon...just went Conservative...by <100 votes.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Bush/Kerry did follow the exit polls...after they reweighted them.  Just look at what the networks have up on their archived Election 2004 sites now.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

In any case, if the Tories hit 200, they won't do it tonight, given the by-election in Staffordshire South.  I'm going to bed.