Gallup says Kerry 49 Bush 48 likely

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Re: Dems doing better on weekends
If that true, it's just another argument in favor of weighting by party.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Gallup also says Kerry won the second debate 45%-30%.

Seems odd.

I would like to see the wording of the question.

Gallup usually gets the "guts" up early the next day.

This suggests to me that:
1.) Kerry won the 2nd debate very narrowly
2.) Kerry won the post-debate spin by a wide margin

Just like in 2000 when immediately following the first debate a narrow majority thought Gore won, but after it filtered through the media, perceptions shifted toward Bush.  Apprently perceptions of the debate have shifted in Kerry's favor in the past couple days.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Kerry is not a good finisher. That myth has been debunked numerous times already.

The fact he would have lost to Weld if not for Clinton says it all.

Why would have have lost if not for Clinton?  Clinton lost a lot of ground in the final days of the '96 campaign, sinking a lot of Dem Senate and House candidates, but Kerry held on.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Kerry is not a good finisher. That myth has been debunked numerous times already.

The fact he would have lost to Weld if not for Clinton says it all.

Why would have have lost if not for Clinton?  Clinton lost a lot of ground in the final days of the '96 campaign, sinking a lot of Dem Senate and House candidates, but Kerry held on.

Actually, Gov. Nick, that statement is incorrect.  The number of Dem House seats increased by 3.

Right, but a lot of people thought the Dems might retake the House in 1996 on the strength of a 15-point Clinton victory.  The Dems picked up a couple seats in the House, but their performance was actually pretty disappointing, since some of seats they won were just seats where the Republicans won fluke victories in 1994 that they had no reasonable chance of holding (e.g. Rostenkowski's seat). 

And the Dems ended up losing one net seat in the Senate.    Some of the seats the Dems expected to win (Swett in NH, Nelson in NE) didn't pan out.  Kerry was one of the few Democrats to gain strength at the close of the campaign.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Kerry was one of the few Democrats running in Massachusetts

But what does that have to do with Bill Clinton?  Kerry's support rose at the end of the campaign while Clinton's was falling.