2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections (user search)
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Author Topic: 2023 Chicago Mayoral/Aldermanic Elections  (Read 33339 times)
Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« on: August 30, 2022, 10:50:31 AM »
« edited: August 30, 2022, 10:53:53 AM by gracile »
There have been quite a few retirements so far.

I'm most excited about the open 48th Ward seat, partly because this is in my neck of the woods and partly because it seems like a prime pickup opportunity for the DSA (and they seem to be taking it seriously already as they have made an early endorsement here for candidate Nick Ward - a DSA member and organizer for affordable housing).
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #1 on: September 05, 2022, 08:41:50 PM »
Another retirement: Ald. Susan Sadlowski Garza of the 10th Ward (East Side, Hegewisch, South Deering) will not seek reelection-

https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/elections/ct-chicago-alderman-susan-sadlowski-garza-leaving-city-council-20220905-qxg25jnuxbgg7fjtigvw34krxy-story.html
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2022, 11:17:19 AM »
Don't take NYE seriously. He brings up the idea Barack/Michelle/Malia/Sasha Obama running for some office in IL frequently. There's no chance that it will actually happen.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #3 on: September 07, 2022, 10:09:12 AM »
Chuy Garcia has endorsed Ana Guajardo for the open 10th ward-
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #4 on: September 14, 2022, 02:21:46 PM »
Chicago DSA has endorsed three more Aldermanic challengers: Oscar Sanchez (10th Ward - Southeast Side), Angela Clay (46th Ward - Uptown), and Mueze Bawany (50th Ward - West Ridge). Clay previously ran unsuccessfully in 2019, and Bawany is the only one of these endorsees not running in an open seat at the moment - he's running to take on Ald. Debra Silverstein-

https://news.wttw.com/2022/09/14/chicago-s-democratic-socialists-endorse-3-city-council-challengers-amid-push-expand-power
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2022, 11:55:35 AM »
A new mayoral poll from Bendixen & Amandi on behalf of Nuestro PAC (a Latino interests organization urging Garcia to enter the race) just dropped shows Lightfoot having a narrow lead over Garcia in the first round. The numbers in parentheses are after undecided leaners are accounted for:

https://www.nuestropac.com/_files/ugd/d8c5dc_164fb78c8dd84e1ca26c23e5b67527de.pdf

Lori Lightfoot 21% (25%)
Chuy Garcia 20%  (24%)
Willie Wilson 11% (13%)
Paul Vallas 7% (9%)
Sophia King 4% (4%)
Pat Quinn 4% (6%)
Raymond Lopez 3% (3%)
Kam Buckner 2% (2%)
Ja'Mal Green 2% (3%)
Brandon Johnson 1% (2%)
Roderick Sawyer <1% (<1%)
"I wouldn't vote in this race" 1% (2%)
"Someone else" 0% (<1%)

400 likely voters, 4.9%
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #6 on: November 10, 2022, 11:43:38 AM »
Garcia is officially in:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2022, 03:07:19 PM »
Pat Quinn is out-
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #8 on: November 23, 2022, 01:48:29 PM »
Garcia raised a large amount of money since announcing-
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #9 on: December 13, 2022, 11:58:43 AM »
Garcia leads Lightfoot by 7 (25-18, followed by Vallas at 14, Wilson at 10) in the first round but leads Lightfoot in a runoff by 30 points (55-25) in a poll commissioned by the International Union of Operating Engineers Local 150 (this union endorsed Garcia, so read this similar to an internal). More details and crosstabs here:

https://news.wttw.com/2022/12/12/garc-claims-front-runner-status-7-points-race-mayor-says-poll-commissioned-operating
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #10 on: January 06, 2023, 12:51:58 PM »
A new poll from The Chicago Index/Crain's/The Daily Line shows Garcia and Johnson tied, with Lightfoot in fourth place:

https://www.thedailyline.com/chicago-index-poll-mayor-lightfoot-4th-place-2023-mayoral-race

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/polco.nrc/viz/TCIMayorNov/Completedata?publish=yes

Garcia 25%
Johnson 25%
Vallas 15%
Lightfoot 11%
Buckner 5%
Green 3%
King 3%
Wilson 3%
Sawyer 2%
Collins <1%
Logalbo <1%

MoE: 3%
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #11 on: January 06, 2023, 01:34:18 PM »
I don't think this survey is very accurate tbh. This sample is pretty white, which might explain why various black candidates aside from Johnson are getting low levels of support.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2023, 03:57:24 PM »
I will be interested in seeing how Lightfoot's voter coalition shifts compared to 2019. Her strongest areas of support in the first round last time were some of the most heavily progressive wards whose voters I'd expect to be primed to go for Johnson or Garcia. My guess is she will put up a comparatively stronger performance in the black-majority wards and maybe places like River North/Streeterville, where there are more upscale, non-progressive whites (though Vallas may also have a strong showing here).
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #13 on: February 27, 2023, 02:42:18 PM »
Some early vote figures by ward:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #14 on: February 28, 2023, 04:05:31 PM »
I'm most invested in the 46th and 48th Ward election results today, not the mayoral contest.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #15 on: February 28, 2023, 08:25:51 PM »
Quote from: kwabbit on February 28, 2023, 08:23:36 PM
Quote from: Peltola for God Empress on February 28, 2023, 08:06:08 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on February 28, 2023, 07:56:10 PM


According to NYT we won’t get ward results till midnight CT

As in there won’t be votes by precinct/ward but there will be a citywide vote? Or just nothing until midnight central.

Wards and precincts. The citywide vote totals for mayor are already being released on the official Chicago elections website (as well as Alderman by ward):

https://chicagoelections.gov/
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #16 on: February 28, 2023, 08:34:35 PM »
Fairly confident it will be Vallas-Johnson at this point.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #17 on: February 28, 2023, 09:09:15 PM »
Quote from: Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil on February 28, 2023, 08:52:47 PM
Quote from: JM1295 on February 28, 2023, 08:49:08 PM
Can Garcia still run for reelection for his house seat though? It'd suck to see him be out of elected office entirely.
I don't know why he couldn't.

I'm assuming they were wondering if Garcia will retire after this term, which I suppose is possible given that he was willing to make the jump for mayor in the first place.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2023, 01:07:05 PM »
Daniel La Spata is now above 50% with late ballots coming in. He may avoid a runoff, but too early to say.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #19 on: March 07, 2023, 09:48:09 PM »
I have a hard time seeing how Vallas isn't the strong favorite heading into the runoff.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #20 on: March 12, 2023, 01:26:52 PM »
Victory Research poll has Vallas leading:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #21 on: March 12, 2023, 11:08:45 PM »
Stay on topic, please.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #22 on: March 15, 2023, 12:09:07 PM »
Here's the final official precinct map:



And it looks like Lightfoot narrowly beat out Johnson in the 5th Ward after all:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #23 on: March 16, 2023, 10:31:48 AM »
Clyburn's endorsement is not that meaningful here compared to the critical local endorsements Vallas has received. I think Vallas is still the firm favorite, though I can see the final margin being closer to the high single digits than a true blowout.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,060


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #24 on: March 16, 2023, 02:41:54 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on March 16, 2023, 02:36:51 PM
Is Obama expected to make an endorsement here? Chicago afterall is his hometown, albeit the fact that he resides the Washington for most of the time.

Definitely not; Obama has been reluctant to get involved with local Chicago politics since leaving office.
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