GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

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It's so predictable that now the GOP is criticizing the runoff system now that it has started to help Democrats.

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I really don't think you can justify Hershel Walker moving the race in favor of the Dems. Dude is literally a god over there. Who the hell would perform better than him? David Perdue?

Anyone under 50 probably does not remember seeing him play at Georgia. He has not lived in the state for nearly 40 years. He has a ton of baggage including domestic abuse, mental health issues and the fact his wife may be facing voter fraud charges. On top of all that he has zero experience as a candidate. Republicans would be better off with a generic R candidate (yes that includes Perdue) than Walker IMHO.

I'll also add that being a local sports star from years ago probably carries less cachet in a state like Georgia where a significant segment of (Democratic) voters are transplants from elsewhere.

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Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved the Georgia runoff to Lean D from Toss-up ahead of tomorrow's election:

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/georgia-runoff-to-leans-democratic/

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I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

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I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

It's probably because the runoff strategy is more about maximizing base turnout than in November, so it's more prudent for both campaigns to reach out to voters who they know for sure will vote for them and remind them to vote. Using persuasion is of secondary importance, which I assume is why Warnock didn't highlight specific policies in his texts and why Walker hasn't reached out to you as (I assume?) a Warnock voter.

I voted for Walker. Not motivated to vote for him now that Trump is running.

Primary history is 2018 GOP (Abrams general) 2020 dem 2022 GOP.

Given your voting history (specifically voting in a Democratic primary) they still probably see you as someone they could win over/could turn out for Warnock.

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Walker will still have a high floor of support just due to the nature of Georgia's electorate, even if Republican turnout is down.

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Another DeKalb update:

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1600265177114456064

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I would be more confident calling the result when we get more full county results in.

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OH MY GOD LOOK AT COBB COUNTY

and that's 85% in

That seems like it might be an error.

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Clayton just dropped a ton of its (I assume) early vote and Warnock is leading there 91-9.

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https://twitter.com/zach_solomon1/status/1600291195250298885

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Not following this too closely because I’m at a holiday party but based on skimming Twitter it looks like Warnock is massively underperforming??

Most of the results that are fully in are tracking close to the November election results, and there's a lot of noise in the rural results (some swinging toward Warnock and some Walker). It's looking like a close race, but it seems like Warnock has the edge.

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Douglas County has the most votes in of any of the Atlanta metro counties (over 80%) and Warnock is leading there 69-31 (was 65-33 in November).

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Warnock will take the lead again when more of metro Atlanta comes in.

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I'm surprised people still care so much about the election needle.

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Warnock leads 92-8 in DeKalb with early votes in, putting him at a 1% lead statewide.

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Warnock is at or overperforming his November margins in a few Southwest Georgia Democratic rural counties that are >95% in - Calhoun, Clay, and Randolph. In Randolph he is only 15 votes behind his general election raw vote number.

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Warnock will almost surely win Georgia by more than Clinton 1992, which again was instacalled at poll close.

This is partly because media reporting standards have changed massively because of the Florida 2000 debacle tbf. And even in the 90s, the networks messed up calls (Wyche Fowler was incorrectly called the winner in GA in 1992 by the networks, but his race ended up going to a runoff).

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Cherokee is at >95% in on NYT and Walker leads 69-31.

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And now Forsyth is at >95% in, with Walker leading 66-34 (that's Walker's last favorable big county left).

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NYT officially called it for Warnock.

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North Fulton remains one of the swingiest parts of the Atlanta metro:

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1600516495662088195

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Precinct loyalty map for the 2021 special runoff and the 2022 runoff in the Atlanta metro. Warnock improved in most places, but it looks like his biggest gains were in North Fulton and East Cobb:

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1603820503784837121

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Precinct loyalty map for the 2021 special runoff and the 2022 runoff in the Atlanta metro. Warnock improved in most places, but it looks like his biggest gains were in North Fulton and East Cobb:

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1603820503784837121

So, Warnock swung Fayette like 7 points towards him and not a single precinct flipped.

The Kedron precinct (in the far western part of the county that's the least Republican part of Peachtree City) came the closest. It went from Loeffler 54-46 in the 2021 runoff to Walker 51-49 in 2022. I don't think the result is surprising, given how geographically and racially polarized the county is in certain areas. The southern part of Fayette is still heavily Republican and hasn't shifted nearly as much as precincts around Fayetteville.