2022 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

[Gracile]

Oh now the usual suspects believe the polls, lol.

Dont believe in polls, believe in fundamentals.  They’ve all been pointing in the same direction the entire year.

I mean, you can also look at special election results that occurred when the CGB was even worse for Dems, what does that tell you?

Low turnout special elections are not fundamentals.

They should be taken into account, however.

They were incredibly indicative in 2018, and they were also indicative in 2021 - NM-01 represented a good environment for Dems, Fall 2021 clearly represented a worse one for Dems.

Today I learned VA gov and NJ gov were low turnout special elections.. LOL.  Thanks for proving my point.

I assume they're using a far-reaching definition where anything not in November of a nationwide general election year is a "special election."

[Gracile]

The only credible Political Handicapper is Amy Walter who I've seen on all Networks.

Amy Walter is the editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report (the publication you said you disliked earlier in your post), FWIW. I would hardly call her a great political handicapper since she wrote a whole article doubling down on Cook's decision not to rate Georgia as a likely pickup opportunity in 2020 (while also making errors about Georgia's electoral geography in said article).

[Gracile]

House Majority PAC (D) is cutting back in the Los Angeles market (likely for CA-27) and Tuscon (AZ-06). They're also spending in MI-07 to support Elissa Slotkin, but not in MI-10-

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1583489247985954816

https://twitter.com/allymutnick/status/1583489250254721025

[Gracile]

For the 256th time, the Dems are NOT triaging CA-27. The pre-Dobbs primary was literally something like R+0.8 and usually CA gets more Dem for the general.

It is a smart strategy to not spend in this district, or NY-17, OR-6 and even RI-2. If the Dems get to 218 these will be in the list regardless. If they lose the House by 20 seats, who cares.

Note that "triage" was the reporter's word, not mine. I suppose it's also possible they are scaling back in some of the other LA area seats, too.

[Gracile]

Re: CA-26 - Seems like Democrats are entering the expectation setting part of the campaign.

[Gracile]

Sabato/Crystal Ball released its final ratings-

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/final-ratings-for-the-2022-election/

[Gracile]

Those Senate predictions seem way too bullish for Democrats given some of their House calls in AZ, PA, and NV.