IL-03

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One thing that gives me hope about Newman's chances is that the Republican primary has a competitive race this time. The local GOP seems pretty intent on not nominating the neo-Nazi again, and he has a credible opponent who is a member of the Will County Board. I think this will lead to fewer Republican crossover voters, or at least not enough that couldn't be offset by higher turnout among D-friendly groups in the Democratic primary.

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https://twitter.com/ad_quig/status/1239948660378669060

I think Dan will be fine guys...

Old people are well known for voting earlier than young people.

I mean yeah but usually it isn't this drastic.

These statistics also don’t include a large chunk of pre-election day early vote and vote by mail, which may be more favorable to Newman.

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Very early, but Newman is currently winning the EV in the tiny DuPage part of IL-03 (23 votes to 7 votes or 74.2% to 22.6%)-

https://www.dupageresults.com/IL/DuPage/101646/Web02.245501/#/cid/132

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Looks like Newman is a little more than 10% behind now. It's too bad we can't tell which part of Cook these results are coming from.

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Sad.  Dan might lose!

Maybe he can run for mayor of Oak Lawn.

I thought Lipinski lived in Western Springs (though given how that area voted last time I doubt they would want him to be their mayor).

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Newman has taken the lead (47.1%-43.1%) with about half of the non-Chicago Cook County precincts coming in.

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None of Will County is in yet as well, and that should be prime Newman territory.

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In news that I think all of us can appreciate, noted Neo-Nazi Arthur Jones is pulling only 11% in the Republican primary.

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News media should be careful when talking about Newman. She’s “progressive” in the sense that she’s a lot more liberal than Lipinski, but not “progressive” as in Berniecrat. She’s really just a generic Pelosi Democrat.

She is in the progressive wing of the party, though. She supports Medicare For All and the Green New Deal which is far more than can be said about Pelosi.

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Lipinski is actually going to lose this. Wow. I can live with Sanders losing the primary, since it looks like Democrats in general are opening up to some of his ideas and not always going for the most “moderate” candidate (I realize Newman isn’t exactly Sanders’s twin, but still.)

I'm really surprised by this considering that Newman had to split the field with two other candidates who took nearly 10% of the anti Lipinski vote.

I'm wondering what caused Lipinski to drop so dramatically in support from the primary only two years ago. Happy to see it, but you wouldn't expect this type of largely blue-collar suburbs type of place to be subject to a ton of millennial influx or other demographic changes that could so change the results in only 2 years. Did he do something to screw up that's only known by the locals? Or did his inherited campaign apparatus just fall apart?

Apparently one of the other candidates played hard to one of the minority groups Lipinski did well with last time, so there go some of his 2018 votes. Also, there is a competitive GOP primary (and Trump is on the ballot so you gotta show your loyalty) so limited crossover voters like last time.

Rush Darwish, who made outreach to the Arab-American community a big part of his campaign. Obviously, we can't see the map but it wouldn't surprise me if he cut into Lipinski's support in those precincts.

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Some of Will County E-Day came in and Newman just expanded her lead. Stick a fork in Lipinski.

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I'm left with the wistful "if only" feeling that it would have been nice if someone as awful as Lipinski had lost over something other than not being a loyal footsoldier on abortion.

That's a pretty big oversimplification. For one, Lipinski was hit just as much for voting against Obamacare as he was being anti-choice. He had a ton of liabilities that Newman easily played to her advantage.

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My two cents on this primary is that Lipinski's loss: Progressive challengers seem to win only when they have some established special interests fighting on their behalf. In this case, organizations like Planned Parenthood and Emily's List. Lipinski had many reasons for his loss within the Democratic primary, but he barely lost when all these people/organizations backed Newman is a testament in itself as to how hard it is to defeat a Democratic incumbent.

Yes, Newman's level of institutional support from national and local officials was much stronger this time around which no doubt helped her. I would also add that (in my brief observations as someone from nearby) her campaign focused much more on building a more far-reaching coalition among voter groups she didn't perform as well in her first run or had low turnout rates (specifically Latino voters). Just eyeballing the precinct map, she did make sufficient inroads with these communities that contributed to her victory.