2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2 (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2  (Read 169169 times)
Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #75 on: June 03, 2020, 03:09:17 PM »
Democrats are up 9 points (52%-43%) in the latest generic ballot from Monmouth:

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_060320.pdf/
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #76 on: June 12, 2020, 07:44:26 AM »
Cook Political has moved AK-SEN from Solid Republican to Likely Republican:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/alaska-senate/alaska-senate-moves-likely-republican
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #77 on: June 26, 2020, 09:24:18 AM »
Cook has moved NY-24 from Likely R to Lean R:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/new-york-house/ny-24-katko-moves-likely-lean-republican
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #78 on: June 30, 2020, 10:36:34 AM »
Kendra Horn is making an ad buy in OK-05, starting tomorrow (after the primary):
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #79 on: July 01, 2020, 11:57:19 AM »
Some early Q2 fundraising numbers:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #80 on: July 09, 2020, 10:59:25 AM »
Quote from: Pollster on July 09, 2020, 09:11:40 AM


I find it interesting that Young is performing worst of all the Republicans in this poll (comparing horse race numbers). One might expect him to be performing much better given his status as a long-serving House member for decades, and the fact that he beat this same opponent by a non-insignificant margin of nearly 7% two years ago.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #81 on: July 09, 2020, 04:04:39 PM »
TX-22: Sri Preston Kulkarni raised $950K in Q2, has $1.1M COH-

https://www.texastribune.org/theblast/2020/07/09/#tx-22-dem-nominee-sri-preston-kulkarni-raises-950k
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #82 on: July 09, 2020, 05:10:07 PM »
Quote from: Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More on July 09, 2020, 04:57:33 PM
So at this point, is another D wave as likely as the Rs winning the House?

I'd say we're at the point where Democrats are more likely to net gain seats than Republicans. Republicans winning the House was already a steep climb months ago (now it's pretty much impossible).
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #83 on: July 13, 2020, 09:08:31 AM »
MT-AL PPP Poll:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/MontanaPoll071220.pdf

Matt Rosendale (R) 44%
Kathleen Williams (D) 44%
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #84 on: July 13, 2020, 01:22:10 PM »
Here's a slew of House fundraising numbers:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #85 on: July 14, 2020, 11:01:33 PM »
Quote from: LimoLiberal on July 14, 2020, 10:44:02 PM


Lean D

This district is probably the easiest House pickup for Democrats after TX-23 and GA-07.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #86 on: July 14, 2020, 11:18:39 PM »
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on July 14, 2020, 11:16:28 PM
Quote from: Rep. Gracile on July 14, 2020, 11:01:33 PM
Quote from: LimoLiberal on July 14, 2020, 10:44:02 PM


Lean D

This district is probably the easiest House pickup for Democrats after TX-23 and GA-07.

The two North Carolina districts are definitely the easiest.

I don't really count those since they're not exactly the same districts as they were previously and are pretty much gimmes due to the circumstances of their creation (drawn explicitly to be Dem districts). Considering districts that were not changed through redistricting, I would say TX-23, GA-07, TX-24, and CA-25 are the easiest in roughly that order.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #87 on: July 15, 2020, 11:35:48 AM »
IA-03: Cindy Axne raised $836K in Q2, has $3.1M COH-
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #88 on: July 17, 2020, 06:16:34 PM »

These new ratings have now taken CO-06, MN-03, and VA-10 off the board for all of the Big Three prognosticators (Cook, IE, Sabato). Honestly, it was a long time coming for all of these to be rated universally Safe.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #89 on: July 20, 2020, 09:26:15 AM »
VA-02 Tarrance Group/CLF Poll (R):

https://www.congressionalleadershipfund.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/VA-02-July-Survey-Results6.pdf

Elaine Luria (D-inc) 48%
Scott Taylor (R) 48%
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #90 on: July 21, 2020, 10:37:30 AM »
« Edited: July 21, 2020, 10:42:53 AM by Rep. Gracile »
Essentially:



It's their way of telling donors that some of these House districts aren't lost causes.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #91 on: July 21, 2020, 06:16:38 PM »
The DCCC has started running digital ads in three battleground districts in Texas (TX-10, TX-22, TX-24):

https://www.texastribune.org/theblast/2020/07/21/#dccc-launches-digital-ads-against-3-republicans-ba
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #92 on: July 23, 2020, 04:41:13 PM »
Cook Political just made these Senate race rating changes:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #93 on: July 23, 2020, 05:33:33 PM »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on July 23, 2020, 05:19:28 PM
Quote from: n1240 on July 23, 2020, 04:52:40 PM
Colorado being in the same category as Georgia, Iowa, and Montana is absolutely criminal. Very lousy ratings from Cook Political!

If anyone read the piece, she basically explains that Colorado would be Lean D if it had anything close to the level of polling we have from Arizona. I tend not to like Cook when it comes to the senate, but they are rather clear here.

That's a pretty silly justification to leave it in Tossup. Based on fundamentals alone it should be moved to Lean D - especially if Arizona is going to be moved to Lean D. Also, the little lower quality polling we have seen has shown Hickenlooper well ahead.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #94 on: July 24, 2020, 02:56:05 PM »
Inside Elections made two rating changes today, both toward Democrats:

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-july-24-2020

NJ-02: Tilt Republican to Tossup
TX-22: Tilt Republican to Tossup
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #95 on: July 27, 2020, 11:02:15 AM »
KS-04 Sedgwick County, KS Poll from The Progress Campaign:

https://becd085d-5f24-4974-b9b5-73518197155a.filesusr.com/ugd/83fab9_67a55571d4354718bad9c7b632d5fc0e.pdf

Ron Estes (R-inc) 50%
Laura Lombard (D) 43%

Again, this is a poll of only the Sedgwick County part of KS-04. Estes won this county 55-45 in 2018, for reference.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #96 on: August 04, 2020, 10:09:35 PM »
KS-02 DCCC Poll: LaTurner (R) 45%, De La Isla (D) 41%
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #97 on: August 05, 2020, 11:05:27 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 05, 2020, 10:56:19 AM
Quote from: VARepublican on August 05, 2020, 08:48:46 AM
NC-08
brilliant corners/Timmons-Goodson internal

Hudson (R, inc.) 43%
Timmons-Goodson (D) 41%



What would the new NC-08 have voted in 2016?

It's a 53-44 Trump district (trended R slightly from 52-47 Romney). So normally it would be a district that is modestly to the right of the nation, but it's not surprising to see it close given the current national climate.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #98 on: August 06, 2020, 05:19:07 PM »
Quote from: Make PA Blue Again! on August 06, 2020, 05:04:44 PM
A Young Kim internal in the CA-39 rematch has her trailing Cisneros.

Cisneros (D-inc): 47%
Kim (R): 45%

https://t.co/H7tJHlB1F9

Good numbers for Kim - she's outperforming her winning margin in 2018 when she was elected the first Korean-American congresswoman.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #99 on: August 07, 2020, 05:56:55 PM »
Inside Elections with a ton of rating changes:
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