2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[Gracile]

Some guesses:

KS-03 to Safe D
GA-06, MI-11, PA-08 to Likely D
NY-11, TX-24 to Lean D
AR-02, IL-13, MI-03, TX-10 to Tossup
TX-02, TX-25 to Lean R

[Gracile]

Not sure what districts he's referring to, but this seems significant:

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1320772723942019074

[Gracile]

Republicans primarily on the defensive now in the House. Including spending millions on defending "Safe" "moderates" in CA-25 and PA-01. Nice to see!

CA-25 was never safe.

[Gracile]

Aside from MN-01 and TX-02, I think these rating changes are pretty good or at least these seem to be heading in the direction I expect.

[Gracile]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1323035037055520769

This is probably just an overly cautious move, but I've long had a feeling that Bustos would win reelection this year by a closer margin than 2016/2018 and the late spending here reinforces that view.

[Gracile]

These ratings seem quite bearish on Texas. Also, I'm surprised that the pundits seem to think MN-01 is as competitive as they're making it out to be given the 2016/2018 results.

[Gracile]

Sabato needs to be fired. TX 21 and 22 are long gone
Don Bacon is not winning what is likely to be Biden +11
And don't get me started on MN 01

LOL OH-01 and MN-01 before like half a dozen TX seats more likely to flip

Turns out MN-01 would have flipped before every TX Republican seat except TX-24 lol.

People really got carried away when it came to Texas. TrendsareReal was one of the worst offenders. Probably a combination of wishful thinking, a fetish for #trends and being misled by all those s****y polls.

Wasn't just the polls, plenty of people were fooled by them including me (will not make the mistake of believing them any more).
But lots of hacks here and elsewhere were saying Texas is Lean/Likely D for both presidency and senate throughout 2019 and 2020. Turns out republican trends are just as "real" as dem ones.

Idk about elsewhere, but I don't remember anyone here unironically going as far as saying that Texas was Lean/Likely D (maybe a few Tilt D given the number of close polls that Biden lead).