2020 Poll Hype Thread (user search)
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  2020 Poll Hype Thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 193746 times)
Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« on: September 20, 2019, 11:55:57 AM »
Quote from: marty on September 20, 2019, 11:35:27 AM
Selzer laid a nice steamer before 2016 Iowa caucus

She's still probably the gold standard when it comes to Iowa - her final GE poll in 2016 was right on the money.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2019, 09:15:18 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on September 23, 2019, 03:01:41 PM
Will there be a bunch of talk about how Monmouth is a junk poll because they use small samples again?

I predict that if Sanders is leading there will be. If Biden or Warren is leading, there won't be.

That was a pretty dumb thing for a lot of people to get worked up about. Virtually all of Monmouth's sample sizes are 300.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2019, 08:56:39 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2019, 09:01:59 PM by gracile »

Because most people here are more obsessed with polling data/polling hype than a milquetoast, fading presidential candidate.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2019, 09:09:16 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2019, 09:18:25 PM by gracile »
Quote from: Eraserhead on September 24, 2019, 09:05:32 PM
Quote from: gracile on September 24, 2019, 08:56:39 PM

Because most people here are more obsessed with polling data/polling hype than a milquetoast, fading presidential candidate.

lol - he is ahead of Harris now.

And? Harris is a fading candidate too.

Poll hype >>> both of them. Period.
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2019, 09:38:07 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on September 24, 2019, 09:18:30 PM
Quote from: gracile on September 24, 2019, 09:09:16 PM
Quote from: Eraserhead on September 24, 2019, 09:05:32 PM
Quote from: gracile on September 24, 2019, 08:56:39 PM

Because most people here are more obsessed with polling data/polling hype than a milquetoast, fading presidential candidate.

lol - he is ahead of Harris now.

And? Harris is a fading candidate too.

Poll hype >>> both of them.

Harris is still stickied though.

Uh Idk then ask someone to remove her thread. I don't really care as long has this Poll Hype Thread stays pinned!
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2019, 01:25:56 PM »
Quinnipiac apparently has another poll incoming:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2019, 06:00:10 PM »
I think Warren will get a boost from their last poll, while Harris will probably falter pretty badly. If I had to predict I'd say:

Warren 26%
Biden 21%
Sanders 14%
Buttigieg 8%
Harris 4%
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2019, 12:56:23 PM »
NYT/Siena General Election matchups in a bunch of battleground states will be released on Monday:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #8 on: November 14, 2019, 12:27:01 PM »
Selzer is the best in Iowa. This poll should give us a good idea of how the Caucus is shaping up.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #9 on: January 11, 2020, 10:55:20 AM »
Some guy who works for USA Today is teasing a possible Nevada poll:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #10 on: February 01, 2020, 09:01:26 PM »
I'm disappointed in Selzer that this poll had such a glaring oversight, and likely denies us a gold-standard poll before the caucus.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #11 on: February 01, 2020, 09:14:37 PM »
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #12 on: February 10, 2020, 12:05:07 PM »
We really need high-quality NV and SC polls. It would be interesting to see how the race in those states has changed post-Iowa.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2020, 10:19:08 PM »
This probably isn't a poll, but Dave Wasserman is teasing some project with NYT/Upshot that is supposed to be released this week:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #14 on: March 08, 2020, 10:06:36 PM »
Data For Progress might have a Michigan poll coming soon:



...and apparently Missouri and Mississippi as well:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #15 on: May 11, 2020, 01:53:07 PM »
Marquette has a poll coming out tomorrow:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #16 on: June 03, 2020, 10:24:53 AM »
Texas Quinnipiac Poll is incoming today:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #17 on: September 14, 2020, 03:22:53 PM »
We might finally have an Illinois poll incoming:

http://mchenrycountyblog.com/2020/09/14/survey-on-constitutional-amendment-referendum/

Illinois polling has historically been not so good (and frankly, I doubt this pollster is that reputable). However, if it does turn out to be a public poll and not an internal, I'm still looking forward to the results for selfish reasons - mainly to shed light on the progressive income tax amendment that is on the ballot.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #18 on: October 01, 2020, 12:33:02 PM »
Suffolk AZ poll coming tomorrow:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #19 on: October 06, 2020, 09:56:08 AM »
Watch their NV poll be like Biden +3 or something and Atlas spins into their predictable concern trolling (Trump can win Nevada/The race is tightening/Biden is collapsing with Hispanics/etc.), while once again ignoring how challenging it is to poll this state.
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