IA State Fair kernel poll

[Gracile]

Buttigieg at 12% = second wave of momentum???

[Gracile]

Buttigieg at 12% = second wave of momentum???

You know it's not a scientific poll right?

It shouldn't have really even been posted in this part of the forum.

Old white people tend to like Buttigieg more than most so I'm not surprised he did relatively well.

I was being facetious.

[Gracile]

Lol @ those Buttigieg numbers

Is that supposed to be a good LOL or a bad LOL?

Idk. It just seems unrealistic that Buttigieg is that high. It is a straw poll after all.

Tbf the people who would attend such a fair seem to be in line demographically to Buttigieg's supporters nationally.

[Gracile]

Democrats outvoting Republicans? Shhh, don't tell MT Treasurer.

This is hardly predictive of the general electorate in 2020. The Democrats outnumbering the Republicans is more to do with them actually having a competitive primary and thus feel a greater need to cast their kernel. Republicans at this fair are probably less likely to participate since the results are already a foregone conclusion.

[Gracile]

Can someone please explain why this is an unscientific poll?

The fair attendees seem like a random distribution of Iowa voters.

Well, first of all, they allow children to vote in this thing (and they're probably pretty lax about who can participate - like out of staters). And although this is random, I wouldn't exactly call this a representative distribution of Iowa voters.

[Gracile]

Harris being ahead of Sanders is the most puzzling thing about these numbers. I would think this type of crowd would be somewhat more receptive to Sanders, and less Harris.