KS-SEN 2020 Megathread: Marshall overperforms and wins

[Gracile]

I think Kobach would still be favored if he gets through the primary.

[Gracile]

Not exactly a surprise, but Republicans are worried about this seat:

*snip*

This sounds like expectation setting more than anything else tbh.

[Gracile]

Sebelius is backing Bollier-

https://twitter.com/BryanLowry3/status/1186289335349534725

[Gracile]

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here.

[Gracile]

Pompeo has created a personal Twitter account -

https://twitter.com/mikepompeo

Possibly a sign that he's going to jump in the Senate race soon?

[Gracile]

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/476159-wh-adviser-says-pompeo-will-not-run-for-senate?fbclid=IwAR1_WBCTDr5EFXugfrgGzMdv-1aifTBTY8koxwBb9vQAXplrXQL_YtpOG1I.

National Security advisor O'Brien says Pompeo probably isn't running. Guess it's time for Kobach to get the nomination and become the new Roy Moore/Todd Akin...

That's surprising, if true. It seems like Pompeo was making all the moves for a prospective campaign.

[Gracile]

If Dems were proactive here, they'd be pumping money into registering and turning out the massive and untapped Hispanic/Latinx population in the rural southwestern portion of the state and getting them to respond to the census. Will have sizeable electoral and state senate/house redistricting implications.

This seems like a good long-term strategy to make Kansas more competitive statewide (especially when much of the recent Democratic trend was motivated partially by the increasing Hispanic population), but it probably will not be sufficient enough to put Kansas in the competitive column in 2020. Much of the Hispanic population in SW Kansas are either too young to vote or not eligible to vote because they are not citizens. Plus, even if the Hispanic population increases as a share of the electorate it will not be enough to overcome the increased turnout among rural whites.

[Gracile]

Now that voters have been reminded that the Supreme Court exists, Marshall will win by Moran’s 2010 margin. Johnson County is safe R.

Safe R? As someone who actually lives in Johnson County and knows Johnson County, it is definitely not Safe R. JoCo does not equal the rest of Kansas

He's being sarcastic.