2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread

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Trump 2020 manager believes GOP can win back 8 CA seats.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/gop-plans-california-comeback-in-2020-trump-campaign-manager-brad-parscale-says-at-state-convention

Delusional. It's hard to imagine any of the California seats flipping back, especially with Trump in the White House.

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NM-03: Former CIA operative Valerie Plame officially announces that she'll run for Congress and she released this campaign ad-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICW-dGD1M18

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Elizabeth Warren endorsed Jessica Cisneros. Hopefully this starts a cascade

She endorsed Marie Newman (running against Lipinski in IL-03) as well:

https://twitter.com/rollcall/status/1171108104609705984

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Elizabeth Warren endorsed Jessica Cisneros. Hopefully this starts a cascade

She endorsed Marie Newman (running against Lipinski in IL-03) as well:

https://twitter.com/rollcall/status/1171108104609705984

Kind of a given, no?

Didn't Warren endorse Newman last time around too?

No she didn't, the only 2020 contenders who endorsed Newman last time were Sanders and Gillibrand.

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Sabato's Crystal Ball has made two rating changes in the wake of the North Carolina special elections:

NC-03: Likely R -> Safe R

NC-09: Toss-up -> Likely R

http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/bidens-challenge-iowa-and-new-hampshire/

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Not too surprising, but AOC endorsed Marie Newman in IL-03:

https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1173972067592626177

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NE-2: GQR (Eastman internal)

Don Bacon 50
Kara Eastman 49

Don Bacon 53
Ann Ashford 46

Don Bacon 55
Gladys Harrison 44

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9yCoFXZjza8TkxLNDVqeUNFUFpoLUV6aVAtcVZBVXFvUGRF/view

Hopefully, if she wins the DCCC doesn't (stupidly) cut her off again.

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http://mchenrycountyblog.com/2019/09/18/oberweis-releases-august-8th-survey-results-very-favorable-to-his-campaign/

IL-14: McLaughlin (Oberweis internal from August)

Primary:
Oberweis 56%
Rezin 8%
Gradel 4%
33% undecided

General election:
Lauren Underwood (D) 47
Jim Oberweis (R) 38


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Lol, what's the point of even release those general election numbers? And I see they did that "informed ballot" BS as well (Oberweis leads Underwood 51-37 there).

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https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/462843-liberty-university-official-to-launch-primary-challenge-to-gops-riggleman

VA-05: Denver Riggleman likely has a primary challenger - Bob Good, a Campbell County Supervisor and fundraiser for Liberty University. This comes after Riggleman was censured by the Rappahannock County GOP for "abandoning party values" - which includes, among other things, officiating a same-sex wedding.

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https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1177662560218341376

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It’s fundraising report season again!

TX-23: Gina Ortiz-Jones raised over $1 million dollars in Q3, has $1.4 million in COH.

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https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/PPP_Release_Hawaii2_1001.pdf

HI-02 PPP Poll of Democratic Primary voters:

Tulsi Gabbard (D-inc) 38%
"Someone else" 50%

Tulsi Gabbard (D-inc) 46%
Kai Kehele (D) 28%

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I think the point TrendsareReal was trying to make is that although the GOP establishment may promote certain women candidates, it's not guaranteed that their base will vote for them in the primary. The core GOP voter values adherence to a pure, conservative ideology above almost anything else - including issues of identity and promoting diversity in their caucus. That is not to say Republican women can't be elected (especially if they are sufficiently conservative). However, there is often a perception that female candidates are more moderate than their male counterparts. Some of this is based on stereotypes and a rejection of "identity politics" generally, but sometimes female GOP candidates deliberately embrace talking points out of the GOP mainstream as a way to attract swing voters (but would play poorly with the more conservative audience in the primary). And that's saying nothing of the fact that a good chunk of these women would have an uphill battle in the general election. Despite embracing positions that would appeal to some swing voters, the Republican brand in many of these places is so toxic that it probably won't make a difference.

It may sound harsh, but it's hard to look at the Republican party's women recruitment efforts as anything other than a cynical plot to alleviate some of the bad press they've gotten for their caucus' lack of diversity. We've already seen in one election in a safe seat, NC-03, where primary voters are more willing to choose a man over a woman with considerable party backing. And additionally, Rep. Elise Stefanik's efforts to increased the number of women legislators in the House have been derided by many of her more conservative colleagues (even going as far to undermine her as in the NC-03 election). That's not to say that the efforts of people like Stefanik aren't commendable, but I think this is one area where the Republicans are really out of touch with the realities of their voter base.

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https://twitter.com/DavidWright_CNN/status/1179753067195097090

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NY-19: It appears that the campaign of Rep. Antonio Delgado (D) will go on air as a response to the RNC's impeachment ads-

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1179793582775050240

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https://amp.azcentral.com/amp/3897137002?__twitter_impression=true

Kelly raised $5.5 million compared to McSally's $3 million and has $9.5 million cash on hand compared to McSally's $5.6 million.

How anyone can call this race a Tossup (or even Leaning Republican) presently is beyond me.

Obviously a lot can happen between now and election day, but these fundraising totals combined with McSally's tepid polling are pretty bad early signs for her.

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Assorted fundraising numbers for Q3-

IA-01: Ashley Hinson (R) raised $315K, has $492K on hand
IL-06: Jeanne Ives (R) raised $340K
SC-01: Nancy Mace (R) raised $358K, has $452K on hand

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https://twitter.com/AlexClearfield/status/1181278344127475714

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Yeah, but Atlas told me NJ-2 is a tossup because muh trends and Van Drew underperformed.

Van Drew did underperform (by a good amount) in 2018. He could definitely be saved by very weak opposition but I think considering this and NJ-3 as tossups is reasonable

How much was he supposed to win by? He won by 8 points in a district that voted for Trump by 5 points, so the margin over-performance was double digits.

He underperformed his polling (he was leading by around 20% in the two public polls of the race), as well as Obama's 2012 margin in the district despite 2018 being arguably a better year for Democrats than 2012. Not to mention his opponent was triaged by national Republicans and made a bunch of racist comments. A poor opponent combined with Van Drew's moderate record made it seem like he would get a lot of crossover support. In hindsight, it was pretty unlikely that Van Drew would get those kinds of big numbers to begin with (and the 7.7% margin that he won with was a pretty good performance in our current partisan era). However, for the aforementioned reasons, I think a lot of people expected him to do just a little bit better.

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TX-07: Wesley Hunt (R) raised $450K in Q3-

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1181541257363021824

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https://twitter.com/ShaneGoldmacher/status/1181633866274103296?s=19

Lmao

This nobody outraised Nicole Malliotakis lol.

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PA-10: Eugene DePasquale raised $360K from 1,500 donations in Q3, has $280K on hand

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PA-08: Luzerne County Councilman Harry Haas (R) will challenge Rep. Matt Cartwright (D).

https://www.timesleader.com/news/758320/luzerne-county-councilman-haas-to-run-for-congress-against-cartwright

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NY-17: Nita Lowey (D) is retiring-

https://twitter.com/NitaLowey/status/1182329629543145474

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IL-06: Rep. Sean Casten raised $700K in Q3, has $1.4 million on hand-

https://www.chicagotribune.com/politics/ct-casten-ives-sanguinetti-third-quarter-fundraising-20191010-jq43pkossfh3zcb4opfrxcbpyi-story.html