2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread  (Read 171595 times)
Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #25 on: July 01, 2019, 10:04:09 AM »
VA-10: Jennifer Wexton raised over $500k in the second quarter
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #26 on: July 01, 2019, 10:04:36 AM »
This is not a Senatorial poll.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #27 on: July 01, 2019, 10:08:56 AM »
Quote from: Muh trends on July 01, 2019, 08:16:47 AM
NRCC internal: Malinowski TRAILS generic R, 44-42.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/congress/nrcc-poll-malinowski-in-close-re-election-race-remains-largely-unknown/

But Atlas told me this district was Safe D because of muh sububran trends and muh "swung towards Menendez"!

Taking Republican internals at face value to own the straw man.

This poll is about as close as one might expect, though obviously it should be taken with a grain of salt.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #28 on: July 01, 2019, 10:10:21 AM »

This board is explicitly for Senate polls. Atlas does not have a board dedicated to House polls, so this shouldn't be here.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #29 on: July 01, 2019, 11:43:29 AM »
Some other Q2 fundraising numbers -

TX-24: Kim Olson (D) raised $300k from 3,900 donors

CO-SEN: Former Ambassador Dan Baer (D) raised $1.35M
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #30 on: July 01, 2019, 06:52:05 PM »
MI-11: Rep. Haley Stevens (D) raised $725k (!) in Q2 and has over $1M in cash-on-hand
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #31 on: July 02, 2019, 09:24:08 AM »
CA-25: Rep. Katie Hill (D) raised $720k in Q2
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #32 on: July 02, 2019, 04:24:24 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 02, 2019, 04:20:13 PM
My lord!



I think Kelly is probably the favorite at this point.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #33 on: July 02, 2019, 05:28:43 PM »
Quote from: Councilor Suburban New Jersey Conservative on July 02, 2019, 04:54:39 PM
Quote from: gracile on July 02, 2019, 04:24:24 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 02, 2019, 04:20:13 PM
My lord!



I think Kelly is probably the favorite at this point.

I'd expect Trump and McSally to carry AZ in a close national environment, if it becomes significantly Democratic, like D+4-6 or more, then Kelly probably wins

I think it would be lower than that given the way AZ is trending.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #34 on: July 03, 2019, 12:19:40 PM »
Quote from: Councilor Zaybay on July 03, 2019, 12:10:16 PM


So EMILY's List is essentially going to guarantee Cuellar another term instead of backing the candidate who is already challenging him (even though she is a pro-choice woman)?

Such a terrible organization. They only care about backing establishment-friendly candidates who can bring in the most $$$.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #35 on: July 03, 2019, 03:59:34 PM »
« Edited: July 03, 2019, 04:15:27 PM by gracile »
IA-01: Ashley Hinson (R) has raised $335k in Q2 (or in the six weeks since she launched)



Also, DailyKos has been keeping track of Q2 fundraising totals. Here is their latest -

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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #36 on: July 03, 2019, 06:09:29 PM »
Quote from: Muh trends on July 03, 2019, 05:39:14 PM
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on July 03, 2019, 02:23:54 PM
They'll still win. Shawn Moody won this district man. Golden is making a huge mistake by running for re-election I'm telling you. I mean if there's a big dem wave I could see him squeaking by(maybe winning via RCV again) but even then it's going to be hard. He could certainly outrun the Presidential nominee but only by so much.
Greg Abbott won TX-7 and TX-32 so they're tossups.
John Cox won CA-39, CA-45 and CA-48 so they're tossups.

Gubernatorial election results are not great indicators for how a district will vote at the federal level.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #37 on: July 03, 2019, 06:21:28 PM »
Quote from: Muh trends on July 03, 2019, 06:10:27 PM
Quote from: gracile on July 03, 2019, 06:09:29 PM
Quote from: Muh trends on July 03, 2019, 05:39:14 PM
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on July 03, 2019, 02:23:54 PM
They'll still win. Shawn Moody won this district man. Golden is making a huge mistake by running for re-election I'm telling you. I mean if there's a big dem wave I could see him squeaking by(maybe winning via RCV again) but even then it's going to be hard. He could certainly outrun the Presidential nominee but only by so much.
Greg Abbott won TX-7 and TX-32 so they're tossups.
John Cox won CA-39, CA-45 and CA-48 so they're tossups.

Gubernatorial election results are not great indicators for how a district will vote at the federal level.
I was mocking Progress96's notion that ME-2 is Safe R because Moody carried it with a plurality.

Sorry, I misunderstood your post.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #38 on: July 08, 2019, 10:12:06 AM »
« Edited: July 08, 2019, 03:25:05 PM by Gravel Green »
IL-06: Rep. Sean Casten (D) raised over $700K in Q2, has $900K in COH
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #39 on: July 08, 2019, 12:43:42 PM »
The NRCC released polls of five districts (CA-21, CA-39, CA-45, GA-06, and NJ-07) asking about support for impeaching Donald Trump -

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000016b-d0d5-d6eb-a96f-faf5cf6a0001

(District) - (support%/oppose %):

CA-21 - 35%/57% (-22)
CA-39 - 34%/57% (-23)
CA-45 - 33%/59% (-26)
GA-06 - 29%/60% (-31)
NJ-07 - 31%/59% (-28)

They did not release any head-to-head matchups, and given the source, these numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #40 on: July 08, 2019, 02:36:35 PM »
« Edited: July 08, 2019, 02:41:00 PM by Gravel Green »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 08, 2019, 02:02:45 PM


He's raised enough to take a spot from Hickenlooper/Swalwell/Bullock in the next debate. /s
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #41 on: July 08, 2019, 03:27:17 PM »
IL-14: Rep. Lauren Underwood (D) raised over $700K in Q2, has $750K in COH

Lots of money flowing into Chicagoland, it will be interesting seeing the GOP's figures.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #42 on: July 09, 2019, 08:54:26 AM »
TX-23: Gina Ortiz-Jones raised $571K in Q2 (she entered six weeks before the end of the quarter) -
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #43 on: July 09, 2019, 11:45:42 AM »
Inside Elections Senate rating changes:

https://www.rollcall.com/news/gonzales/senate-rating-changes-texas-and-minnesota-shift-democrats-way

MN-SEN: Likely D > Solid D

TX-SEN: Solid R > Likely R
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #44 on: July 09, 2019, 12:52:44 PM »
Some GOP fundraising numbers in competitive districts:
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #45 on: July 09, 2019, 04:53:27 PM »
Yeah, I don't buy it - especially with the tendency for Democrats to outperform their polling in heavily Hispanic constituencies.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #46 on: July 09, 2019, 05:26:01 PM »

NJ-07: Rep. Tom Malinowski (D) raised $568K in Q2, has $1.02M in COH
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #47 on: July 10, 2019, 03:04:14 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 10, 2019, 02:58:22 PM
Quote from: Interlocutor on July 10, 2019, 02:39:58 PM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on July 10, 2019, 08:05:33 AM
I get the feeling that most of the GOP energy is going to end up focused on CA48/39 this cycle, with CA45 and 49 getting off a little easy.

As it should be. CA 45/49 look to be lost for a generation.

With CA-48, they could use the "Rohrabacher who?" cover.

 CA-39 would be a prime pickup if 'Generic R' ran rather than Young "Dems totally stole the vote" Kim

Given the demographic makeup of CA-39, I have to imagine that it won't be easier to get the seat back in a Presidential year.

Yeah, I'm not sure why people are acting like CA-39 is likely to flip back. It is a majority-minority seat after all, and I doubt the presidential year demographics will be favorable at all to the GOP.
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #48 on: July 11, 2019, 12:25:51 PM »
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Gracile
gracile
Moderator
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,064


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65
« Reply #49 on: July 12, 2019, 09:08:25 AM »
CA-21: The NRCC also released a poll that showed a Republican opponent (probably Valadao) leading Rep. TJ Cox 52-36

https://www.fresnobee.com/news/politics-government/election/local-election/article232567407.html
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