House Membership Change in 2008?

[Jaggerjack]

D>30: D+1
R>30: R+1
and so forth.
Overall results for 2008: D+5
Well, this is what I think will happen. Hope it's not too hackish.

[Jaggerjack]

Oh wait... wrong district. I thought Melancon was in New Orleans.

Change: D+6

[Jaggerjack]

Regardless if he'll lose or not, he IS the last Republican congresman of New England. The Democrats are going to pour huge amounts of money to unseat him, and I think they may.

[Jaggerjack]

If Linda Stender could not take down Mike Ferguson in 2006, she will not do it in 2008

Oh, I daresay more energy into the campaign may (possibly) beat Ferguson. He's supposed to have a hyper-Republican district, and yet he won by just two points.

And I'm interested in seeing what you all think. Make some maps.

[Jaggerjack]

I thought Republicans already hold the 4th.

[Jaggerjack]

V2:

[Jaggerjack]

Maybe a few close seats from 2006. Same for Illinois. Though in Michigan's case, I'm not sure if it'd work, because they're so gerrymandered.

[Jaggerjack]

I would be surprised if I lived outside of the district, but Chris is a pretty popular guy out here. I'm not saying Chris can't lose, but I don't think he will in 2008. The only candidate strong enough for me to say Chris could really lose would be Blumenthal, and he aint running.

And BTW, the only Republican pick ups I see is TX-22, and maybe the two Georgia seats, but that's a tough call.

Oh come on... it's GEORGIA, remember?

[Jaggerjack]

The GOP almost picked up GA-12 in 2006, when they were getting trounced everywhere else.  Besides, Republicans almost won it in 2004, and they did win it in 2002.

They only won the district (which was quite different then o/c; less rural, included Athens) in 2002 because the Democratic candidate was truly dreadful.
But the results there in 2002 and 2006 do show, and pretty clearly, that it's nay the strongly Democratic district that a certain poster has, repeatedly, claimed that it is...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Is it? Overall Georgia is certainly swinging to the Republicans, but that's mainly due to mushrooming of Atlanta suburbia; none of which is in GA-12. The only reason for Barrow's scare last year was the very low black turnout in East Georgia that year.
IMO he's far from safe (and his district is, at best, a marginal), but he's not screwed in the way that Marshall (who's district does include some Atlanta commuterland) is.
Of course... if it turns out that Barrow's appeal to black voters is as poor in 2008 as it apparently was in 2006, then, yeah, he's done as well.

Aren't you forgetting about rural Georgia?