Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Farmlands]

Russia and America both engage in sphere of influence politics. Only Russia admits that publicly. Maintaining a larger sphere tends to make the country richer and more influential, and America's sphere has grown at the expense of Russia's.
NATO moving east is absolutely not a benign thing. It's a dagger held at the Russian heartland, and in fact we've disrespected Russia for decades now. Now Russia is running to China, and it's mainly our fault.

A crucial question here is, could Russia ever be a member of NATO? Putin himself mentioned this in his speech today (in his own particular way).

Personally I would say the question is clearly no while Russia is an autocratic dictatorship under Putin. But could it never, if it hypothetically became a democratic country similar to e.g. Latvia?

It is true that Russia may perceive NATO as a dagger held at the Russian heartland, and we should be willing to acknowledge that perception. But at the same time, need it necessarily be?

On the one hand, we should not be surprised that some people in Russia would have the perception of threat, but at the same time we should also be willing to acknowledge that this can be a manifestation of their own attitudes and paranoia.

It can be a chicken-and-the-egg issue, which is how I would think about it at any rate.

Up to this point, NATO has functioned as a defensive alliance against any Russian resurgence. I don't know what to think about it being anything else because like most people, I've never imagined it as anything else. But the time might someday come that it perhaps would be the better if it did.
If we're being brutally honest with ourselves, that day might even be now.

He says, as Russia prepares to invade and create a massive crisis in a country not far off from other NATO members' borders. And Putin would've probably already had his way with the Baltic nations too, had they not joined the alliance.

[Farmlands]

I assume this means the Russians have brought out the thermobarics, this is gonna get real nasty.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1498037904496418817?s=20&t=06qxSG-uBQZFA...

It looks like an atomic bomb was deployed. The US and NATO have an obligation to wipe Russia off the face of the earth if that is the case.

I'm almost certain that isn't the case. The explosion that resulted from a missile hitting a pipeline in Kyiv yesterday looked really similar to this, and I think we're seeing the same here.

[Farmlands]

If you read carefully through this thread, you can determine why NATO hasn’t directly intervened.

Despite what some “Russia stronk Russian nukes WWIII” posters think, it’s not because NATO is afraid of Russia.

The goal is regime change in Russia, brought about by Putin’s own actions in Ukraine.

As long as NATO doesn’t directly intervene in Ukraine, Putin can’t use it as a rallying cry tO pRoTeCt MoThEr RuSsIa. Because sadly there absolutely are many Russians who would see it that way.

So NATO/EU/the West in general will do everything they can up to the line of direct intervention to aid Ukraine.

I understand this policy; I don’t like how hard it is on the Ukrainians, but at least I grasp the logic.

Good on the EU.

I'm sorry, but it's impossible for me to believe that NATO is willing to intervene, when they've clearly said time and again they're not, because something something Russian rebellion. Only in a total defeat for Putin would that have a chance of occurring.

If Ukraine were to fall, the West would only stand by and watch. I still have hope for the first though.

[Farmlands]

If you read carefully through this thread, you can determine why NATO hasn’t directly intervened.

Despite what some “Russia stronk Russian nukes WWIII” posters think, it’s not because NATO is afraid of Russia.

The goal is regime change in Russia, brought about by Putin’s own actions in Ukraine.

As long as NATO doesn’t directly intervene in Ukraine, Putin can’t use it as a rallying cry tO pRoTeCt MoThEr RuSsIa. Because sadly there absolutely are many Russians who would see it that way.

So NATO/EU/the West in general will do everything they can up to the line of direct intervention to aid Ukraine.

I understand this policy; I don’t like how hard it is on the Ukrainians, but at least I grasp the logic.

Yeah, I don't buy this at all. Banking on the Russians overthrowing Putin by themselves is a stretch at best. It could happen, but I absolutely don't see NATO counting on this.

NATO is refraining from defending Ukraine because they are scared of nuclear war and because the Americans aren't really on board with entering into another war in general. I guarantee you that NATO would be totally on board if Joe Biden tomorrow said "let's kick out those damn russians". The rest of NATO is still too weak and too fragmented.

NATO isn’t refraining from defending Ukraine, they are refraining from putting their own troops in because that’s how we’ve figured out how to do things without causing a human extinction event.

Let Russia do whatever genocide they want bcuz Putin said some empty threats that he would be unironically overthrown by his generals for if he tried to act on them.

100 percent. What's happening in Kharkiv wouldn't be the case with NATO troops present on the ground. But neither would the devastation of the entire world, because not even Putin or his generals want it, and it's insane to think they would.

[Farmlands]

The US has recently reiterated its stance of being staunchly opposed to Poland's plan to send fighter jets to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russia is proceeding with its civilian shelling and war crimes, this time by bombing a maternity ward and children's hospital in Mariupol, killing three, including a minor: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60675599.

Biden and Stoltenberg should at the very least delineate some red lines, instead of repeatedly and sternly insisting that no matter what, NATO won't even give Ukraine some jets, allowing Putin full free reign here.

[Farmlands]

It's amazing what the Ukrainians have been able to do in these last few days with all the places they've taken back. I thought for sure before Russia invaded, that the country would inevitably fall within 3 weeks at most, and I couldn't be more glad my assessment was wrong. Keep up the fight!

[Farmlands]

I don't mind a pro-Russia poster contributing in this thread per se, and at least they are open about it.

We'll have to see what happens I guess.

Could at least potentially be a reason for me staying away from this thread though.

You don't have to worry, he's already been banned for being a sock. Naturally, and likely for the best of this thread.

[Farmlands]

https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1575062775902208000

The liberation of Kharkiv oblast from Russian forces seems to be close to completion. With the simultaneous encroachment near Lyman, it seems that the Ukrainian army is poised for some major victories in the next few days. Let's hope that holds.

[Farmlands]

Sending Nazis to die fighting fascists makes Zelensky the greatest anti-fascist.
https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1660772959621873664
https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/1660980457993822209

"Putin's justification for this war is to de-nazify us, how do we dispel this?"

.."I got it! Let's invade their country with actual Nazis!"

They don't need to disprove sh-t, practically everyone knows that line used by the Kremlin to justify the invasion was made up on the go, including most of Putin's backers.