What state will be the biggest surprise on election night?

[TheOldLine]

Months ago during the primaries I said Wisconsin would be the surprise state that'd swing to Bush! I'll stick with that.

At this point, I think that Bush is the favorite in WI....

TheOldLine

[TheOldLine]

I agree with Vorlon on FL...bush will win  by more than expected.  i also look for another razor close finish in OR - with Kerry probably winning.  a big surprise i think will be kerry taking WV. 

I like Vorlon's prediction of FL being not particularly close....although the networks are going to be so reluctant to call FL, we may not realize that it was what it was until later.

While WV was the surprise of the last election, that was because Bush was campaigning hard there while Gore was "refusing to take the bait" and send resources to what he viewed as a safe state.   Its hard for me to see Kerry taking WV unless Kerry suddenly ups his ad buys there and sends himself or Edwards to make a visit or two.

If there is a big surprise to be had on election day, I think that it might be Minnesota.   Most of the MSM isn't taking MN as a battlegroun all-that-seriously, but I think that it may be trending culturally conservative faster than people think, and might produce a similar WV-style surprise this year, producing a solid Bush win *ahead* of his national number, rather than 2 or 3 spots behind it....

Then again, there may not be any surprises, or I could just totally be wrong and Bush takes OR or Kerry takes NV or something like that.

TheOldLine

[TheOldLine]

I agree with Vorlon on FL...bush will win  by more than expected.  i also look for another razor close finish in OR - with Kerry probably winning.  a big surprise i think will be kerry taking WV. 

I like Vorlon's prediction of FL being not particularly close....although the networks are going to be so reluctant to call FL, we may not realize that it was what it was until later.

While WV was the surprise of the last election, that was because Bush was campaigning hard there while Gore was "refusing to take the bait" and send resources to what he viewed as a safe state.   Its hard for me to see Kerry taking WV unless Kerry suddenly ups his ad buys there and sends himself or Edwards to make a visit or two.

If there is a big surprise to be had on election day, I think that it might be Minnesota.   Most of the MSM isn't taking MN as a battlegroun all-that-seriously, but I think that it may be trending culturally conservative faster than people think, and might produce a similar WV-style surprise this year, producing a solid Bush win *ahead* of his national number, rather than 2 or 3 spots behind it....

Then again, there may not be any surprises, or I could just totally be wrong and Bush takes OR or Kerry takes NV or something like that.

TheOldLine

Dems outnumbering registered Repubs in WV by 2 to 1 just makes me a little uneasy......I dont think Bush winning there in 00 means that the state turned Red (or in the case of this board, blue)  gun issues killed gore there in 00 (no pun intended) i dont see that issue helping bush as much there this time.  one plus for bush is that WV is a patriotic state, so that could aid him

The question is "what produces an upset?"   To me, the upset formula is a candidate spending precious advertising dollars, staffing assignments, and most especially, candidate visits on a State that appears to be a longshot, while the opponent does not reciprocate - believing it to simply be a diversionary tactic.   Its nearly inconceivable to me that Kerry could produce an upset without him nor Edwards visiting WV once before election day. 

On the other hand, we have a situation right now where Bush is travelling to Minnesota, but MN is *not* getting visits from Kerry or Edwards.   That's the first part of the formula.   

TheOldLine