You're sorely mistaken if you don't think that this state is at least Likely R.
There hasn't been a gubernatorial race with a victory margin of more than 1.1 points since 2006. In terrible yeasr for the democrats like 2010 and 2014, republicans only managed to squeek out narrow vicotories. Why 2022 is gonna be different is anybody guesse ? espeicaly given that trumps victory was only by 3.4 points comprable to obamas 2008 2.8 point victory.
The fact that Trump won FL by more than Obama despite losing the PV by 4 (Obama won it by 8 in 2008) is rather telling...