ME Sen I can't really be Collins it yet

[Frenchrepublican]

IMO Collins is probably screwed this year. She's systematically ruined the crossover vote that keeps getting her reelected by voting in a blatantly partisan manner.

Collins = Trump is a way more plausible argument than it would've been two years ago.

The tax cuts + Kavanaugh + impeachment could be a combination that proves to be her undoing. It's very difficult for me to see Collins running that much ahead of Trump now. I still think she is favored, as things stand now, but if she wins, it will be with a close margin.

Explain to me why you think Collins is still favored.

Since Maine has more Democrats than Republicans (and she has obviously alienated the former), she's going  to need independents to break her way.

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

Maine has trended to the right, even though it is still a Democratic-leaning state, and Collins will not need to run substantially ahead of Trump to win reelection-and of course, I don't think she will. To say nothing of the fact that Gideon isn't the strongest opponent, and candidate quality, even in this age of increased polarization, still does matter. Just look at Patrick Morrisey, Jim Renacci, and Matt Rosendale, for examples of this. However, I have also said before that Collins could very well suffer the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith, and such a fate is now much more likely because of her vote on impeachment.

Please answer the second question:

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

-Maine is a relatively small state where retails politics and a good constituency service can help you at getting the support of some voters who rarely back your party
-the incumbecy bonus which is still worth 3 to 4 points
-some people who don't like Trump don't necessarily want to see him impeached
-some people are not voting on the impeachment issue and care more about local issues or more serious stuff

[Frenchrepublican]

IMO Collins is probably screwed this year. She's systematically ruined the crossover vote that keeps getting her reelected by voting in a blatantly partisan manner.

Collins = Trump is a way more plausible argument than it would've been two years ago.

The tax cuts + Kavanaugh + impeachment could be a combination that proves to be her undoing. It's very difficult for me to see Collins running that much ahead of Trump now. I still think she is favored, as things stand now, but if she wins, it will be with a close margin.

Explain to me why you think Collins is still favored.

Since Maine has more Democrats than Republicans (and she has obviously alienated the former), she's going  to need independents to break her way.

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

Maine has trended to the right, even though it is still a Democratic-leaning state, and Collins will not need to run substantially ahead of Trump to win reelection-and of course, I don't think she will. To say nothing of the fact that Gideon isn't the strongest opponent, and candidate quality, even in this age of increased polarization, still does matter. Just look at Patrick Morrisey, Jim Renacci, and Matt Rosendale, for examples of this. However, I have also said before that Collins could very well suffer the fate of Margaret Chase-Smith, and such a fate is now much more likely because of her vote on impeachment.

Please answer the second question:

So why would independents break for Collins who just voted to acquit a president who, by Collins's own admission, did something that was wrong?

-Maine is a relatively small state where retails politics and a good constituency service can help you at getting the support of some voters who rarely back your party
-the incumbecy bonus which is still worth 3 to 4 points
-some people who don't like Trump don't necessarily want to see him impeached
-some people are not voting on the impeachment issue and care more about local issues or more serious stuff

- Retail politics can be used by her opponent as well. Good constituent services don't always save politicians. There have been people who have done everything right and still lost. She's lost much of her Democratic support in polling.
- Incumbency is a double edged sword in this case because Collins' record is being used against her.
- But those same people still might vote against him and Collins on reasons other than impeachment.
- Local issues are handled by local councils and such. Susan Collins has no ability to fix potholes.

-I'm not saying it will necessarily save her and let's be clear this race is Tilt R at the best and Collins is clearly vulnerable. The point is that a good constituent service can help you marginally and in a close race it can be the difference between a loss and a win, Trump will likely win lose Maine but if he loses it by a small margin (less than -5 points), Collins could find enough non Trump voters to push her across the finish line, and contrary to what you're saying there are still around 1/5 of the dem electorate which approve Collins
-statistically incumbency still helps you more than it hurts you
-sure, but at least impeachment won't hurt Collins among these voters
-no sure, but Collins is still pretty good at bringing beacon home

[Frenchrepublican]

Raja is a dem troll, he is the reason why so many conservatives don’t believe mainstream medias anymore

[Frenchrepublican]

Raja is a dem troll, he is the reason why so many conservatives don’t believe mainstream medias anymore

Collins said that she hopes that Trump learned his lesson.

He's just asking a simple question, "Has Trump learned his lesson? yes or no?".

That’s a stupid question, she already responded to it last week

Raja wants just to embarrass Collins in order to give democrats some material for their future ads

[Frenchrepublican]

Raja is a dem troll, he is the reason why so many conservatives don’t believe mainstream medias anymore

Collins said that she hopes that Trump learned his lesson.

He's just asking a simple question, "Has Trump learned his lesson? yes or no?".

That’s a stupid question, she already responded to it last week

Raja wants just to embarrass Collins in order to give democrats some material for their future ads

Really? What did she said?

Raja is a dem troll, he is the reason why so many conservatives don’t believe mainstream medias anymore

Collins said that she hopes that Trump learned his lesson.

He's just asking a simple question, "Has Trump learned his lesson? yes or no?".

That’s a stupid question, she already responded to it last week

Raja wants just to embarrass Collins in order to give democrats some material for their future ads

Or, you know, he just wants to hold her accountable.

Well it’s a sad thing that journalists never try to hold accountable democratic politicians.
Anyway don’t really see how asking every week the same question to Collins is ’’holding her accountable’’ , by the the way Collins should be only accountable to Maine voters, not liberal far left partisan journalists

[Frenchrepublican]

Hot take here, but I don’t think Northern Virginia and Maine are really comparable.

This is Atlas, dude

R trends will reverse while D trends will continue forever

[Frenchrepublican]

Hope this isn’t too #bold of me to say, but Susan Collins could very well be the Barbara Comstock of this cycle.

I don't think she will be, but it would be a good thing if she is. Collins has displayed little backbone, and has refused to break from the party line when it really counts.

Really, you should change your party profile