Make a bold prediction about AZ.

[Frenchrepublican]

Arizona will probably one of the most competitive state in 2020 along WI/PA/MI. I also think the democratic nominee will have a better chance to win AZ than NC or FL. NC has not really moved to the left during the last decade and remains a right leaning state, besides in 2018 House republicans still won a majority of the vote in NC (when they lost it in AZ). As for FL you had over the past 15 years a small swing toward republicans, so I think the state will vote four of five points more republican than the rest of the country. AZ on the other hand swung massively to the left between 2012 and 2016 and during the midterms it was the only of the three states where Democrats won a majority of the cumulated House vote. So if the democratic nominee wins the popular vote by three points or more it is fairly easy to see him wins Arizona.